Club Kid's Best Picture Odds Fall to 26% as Pundits Favor Screenplay

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Will Club Kid Get a Best Picture Oscar Nomination? The Market Says 26%

Club Kid is a longer shot for a Best Picture nomination than it was three days ago. Kalshi's "Oscar nominations for Best Picture?" contract for Jordan Firstman's A24 debut fell from 38% to 26% over three days, and we could not establish a cause. Pundits see Best Original Screenplay as the film's more realistic Oscar path. A24 releases the film in U.S. theaters on November 6, 2026.

Live market odds

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Oscar nominations for Best Picture?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

Club KidIn this story

23%

Kalshi4.17x24¢

The Odyssey

98%

Kalshi1.01x99¢

Project Hail Mary

78%

Kalshi1.25x80¢

Dune: Part Three

83%

Kalshi1.19x84¢

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The 26% figure, recorded on Oct. 19, 2026, is a market-implied probability. It is the price traders pay for a contract that pays out if Club Kid is nominated. It is not a poll or a pundit forecast.

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What Moved the Club Kid Market

The contract lost about 12 percentage points across three days. It sits at 26%, the lowest price in that window, and has not rebounded. Festival reviews of the film were published on Oct. 16 and Oct. 17, including from The Rolling Tape, Punch Drunk Critics and IONCINEMA, but we could not establish that they drove the price change. The price shows traders lowering their estimate.

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Club Kid's Oscar Path Runs Through Best Original Screenplay, Pundits Say

The film has a strong festival record. Firstman wrote, directed, and stars as Peter, a washed-up New York party promoter who learns he has a 10-year-old son. Club Kid premiered in Cannes' Un Certain Regard section in May to a six-minute standing ovation, and A24 bought it for a reported $17 million. It then played Telluride in early September, with planned stops at Toronto and New York, according to Variety.

Pundits remain skeptical about Best Picture despite that run. Next Best Picture and other forecasters see Best Original Screenplay as the likeliest category, possibly for the final slot.

The film still has institutional backing. The Ankler lists Club Kid as one of A24's clear awards-season priorities. Variety has also framed supporting player Colleen Camp as a possible "secret weapon" with voters, although no pundit cited here predicts her nomination. Reviews from the general release, box office results, and the precursor awards season all still lie ahead.

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How the Club Kid Best Picture Market Resolves

The contract asks whether Club Kid will be nominated for Best Picture, not whether it will win. It settles on the Academy's official nominations announcement for the 99th Oscars, and the market lists a resolution date of January 21, 2027. Prices for the full field are tracked on the Oscar nominations for Best Picture market page.