Who Will Win the Bulgarian Presidential Election? Polls and Latest News

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Bulgaria Presidential Election

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on .

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Background

Bulgaria is choosing its president in a runoff on November 1, after the first round on October 25 left no candidate above the 50% needed to win outright. The contest is between incumbent Iliana Iotova, backed by Prime Minister Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria and the Socialists, and Andrey Gyurov, a former caretaker prime minister backed by We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria.

The runoff is a straight two-way vote, so the roughly third of first-round voters who backed other candidates, or chose none of the above, now decide the result. First-round turnout was a record-low 23.16%, so who shows up matters a great deal. Markets settle on the official runoff result, not on polls or partial readings, with resolution scheduled for November 30, 2026.

Public polls, newest first. Bases differ, so compare like with like.

Poll	Fieldwork	Base	Iliana Iotova	Andrey Gyurov
Lupa.bg (unofficial early reading, 10:30 a.m. local time)	Nov. 1	Partial polling-day reading	58%	36%

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Nov. 1, 2026: Iotova Hits 84% After Lupa.bg Early Runoff Reading Shows 58-36 Lead

Iliana Iotova's Chances of Winning the Bulgaria Presidential Runoff After an Early Exit Reading

Iliana Iotova is a strong favorite to win Bulgaria's presidential runoff, based on an early, unofficial exit reading and market pricing, but no final result has been confirmed. As Bulgarians voted on Nov. 1, Lupa.bg reported data as of 10:30 a.m. local time showing Iotova at 58% and former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov at 36%.

Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket moved Iotova from 74% to 84% over three days, and both venues priced her at 84% on Nov. 1. The two figures measure different things. The 58-36 split is a vote-share reading taken partway through polling day. The 84% figure is the market's implied probability that she wins. Neither one is a result.

How much weight the reading deserves depends on its source and on what other polling exists.

Are There Polls for Iliana Iotova in the Bulgaria Presidential Election?

The only runoff-day polling data that surfaced is the single Lupa.bg reading. Outlets covering the vote, including AP News and Deutsche Welle, described the runoff itself. Their reporting provided no competing exit figures. That leaves the market price as the only continuously updated measure of the race, alongside one early snapshot.

Pre-election polling has a weak track record in this race. Alpha Research put Iotova at 41.1% and Gyurov at 28.3% on Oct. 23, a gap of about 13 points. Two days later she finished the first round at 34.76% to Gyurov's 31.95%, according to the official count. That was a margin of 2.8 points, or 528,951 votes to 486,232. The 10-percentage-point market jump therefore rests on a source with a mixed record.

The 22-point margin in the reading and the 84% market price are not interchangeable. A large vote-share lead taken at 10:30 a.m. says nothing about who voted later in the day. Turnout in the first round was only about 23%. The 58% and 36% totals also add up to 94%, leaving about 6% unaccounted for in the reading.

What Would Confirm or Undercut Iotova's 84% Price in the Bulgaria Runoff?

The case against the 84% price starts with the evidence itself. It is one unofficial figure, taken early in the day, from a source whose first-round forecasts missed by roughly 10 points on the margin. The runoff is also polarized over Ukraine and Russia policy, as reported by the Washington Post. Gyurov's runoff backers include GERB and SDS/BZNS, while MECH leader Radostin Vassilev urged his voters not to back Iotova.

Official results from Bulgaria's election authorities will settle the question, and later exit readings will not. The market resolves on the official result by Nov. 30, 2026, though the specific rule wording was not verified. Live pricing for every outcome is tracked on the Bulgaria presidential election odds page.

Check the official runoff count before treating the 58-36 reading as final.

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Earlier Updates

Oct. 30, 2026: Iotova's Bulgaria Runoff Odds Hit 82% Despite Thin First-Round Lead

Iliana Iotova71% → 82%▲11

On Oct. 30, Revival leader Kostadin Kostadinov said his party would not give Andrey Gyurov a single vote in the Nov. 1 runoff, while the Central Election Commission voted 8-7 not to rule on complaints that Prime Minister Rumen Radev's government used state resources to promote Iliana Iotova. Iotova led the first round 34.76% to 31.95%.

Oct. 28, 2026: Iotova's Runoff Odds Fall to 72% as 17-Point Poll Lead Shrinks to 2.8

Iliana Iotova88% → 72%▼16

Iliana Iotova's chances of winning Bulgaria's presidency fell to 72% on October 28, down from 88% three days earlier, as she headed into the November 1 runoff against Andrey Gyurov. The first round had shown a far thinner margin than polls predicted, with Iotova taking 34.76% to Gyurov's 31.95% and polls having shown her at least 17 points ahead. The result left the November 1 runoff open, with Kostadin Kostadinov's Vazrazhdane taking 12.55% and its voters' runoff intentions unclear.