Iowa Senate Polls: Turek and Hinson Split Within a Point Before Vote

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Iowa Senate Race Polls: Turek vs. Hinson Is a Toss-Up

Iowa's Senate race between Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson is a toss-up, with every final public poll inside the margin of error. NYT/Siena has Turek at 48% and Hinson at 47%. YouGov (Oct. 26-29) has Turek ahead 50-49. GrayHouse (Oct. 28-31, n=601, ±4.0) has Hinson leading 48-46, and co/efficient also shows Hinson up 48-46.

The split runs by pollster. Two surveys put Turek ahead by a point, and two put Hinson ahead by two. The On Point polling average on Nov. 1 had Turek up 1.6 points. Separately, Kalshi priced Hinson at about 52% to win on Nov. 1. That figure is a market price, not a poll.

The open seat follows Sen. Joni Ernst's retirement. Libertarian Thomas Laehn is also on the ballot. President Trump held a rally in Dubuque on Nov. 1, predicting a big GOP win, according to the Des Moines Register.

The "closest race" figure in the headline comes from a different market, which tracks something other than who wins.

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Iowa 'Closest Senate Race in 2026' Market Rises From 14% to 19%

In Kalshi's "Closest Senate race in 2026?" market, the Iowa contract climbed from 14% to 19% over three days, a gain of about 5 percentage points as of Nov. 2. The rise came as the final Iowa polls landed inside the margin of error.

The contract asks which state's Senate race will be the tightest nationally. It does not ask who wins Iowa. A 19% price means traders assign Iowa roughly a one-in-five chance of producing the closest result. It does not give Turek or Hinson a 19% chance. The sourced material does not spell out how "closest" is measured (for example, by margin of victory in percentage points or raw votes), so readers should check Kalshi's contract terms before trading. Live prices are in the Closest Senate race in 2026 market.

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Resolved Nov 4, 2026

Closest Senate race in 2026?

This market settled on November 4, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point

Iowa competes with other tight contests. In Texas, NYT/Siena has Democrat James Talarico up 7 over Ken Paxton, according to USA Today.

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Are There Polls for the Iowa Senate Race? How They Compare With Market Odds

Yes. NYT/Siena, YouGov, GrayHouse and co/efficient all released late Iowa surveys, with margins running from Turek +1 to Hinson +2. Polls measure sampled voter preference and carry a margin of error. GrayHouse's ±4.0 is wider than the entire spread between the four results.

Kalshi's roughly 52% Hinson price on Nov. 1 is an implied probability of winning, not a projected vote share. That price followed a 4-point drop in 24 hours after the NYT/Siena release and Trump's Dubuque rally. A narrow Hinson lean in the market alongside split polls is consistent with a toss-up. Polymarket's Iowa Senate market moved to 50% from 42% for Democrats, according to CNBC. The sources do not establish whether the markets are leading or lagging the polls.

Other evidence cuts both ways. About 437,689 early ballots were returned by Oct. 31, with Democrats making up a larger share. Kalshi traders also priced Democrats at 74% to win Senate control on Nov. 2, per Kalshi News.

The practical takeaway: a race decided by a point or two falls inside polling error, so the polls cannot call this winner.