Ayotte vs. Warmington Polls: UNH Shows a 48-48 Tie, Others Have Ayotte

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Ayotte vs. Warmington Polls: One UNH Tie Against a Wider Polling Lead

The final UNH Granite State Poll, fielded Oct. 27-31 and released Nov. 1, shows Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) and Democrat Cinde Warmington tied at 48% each, with Libertarian Stephen Villee at 2%, according to InDepthNH. That result sits well outside the RealClearPolling five-poll average, which has Ayotte ahead 50.2 to 41.4, a lead of about 8.8 points. Voters decide the race on Nov. 3.

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On Polymarket, the Ayotte outcome in the "New Hampshire Governor winner?" market fell from 93% to 84% over three days, a drop of roughly 9 percentage points. It touched a low of 83% during that span. The UNH release likely drove the move, though the timing is the only link between the two. The two numbers measure different things. A poll estimates vote share among sampled residents, and UNH surveyed 2,182 people. The market price is traders' implied probability that Ayotte wins.

The UNH result has critics. Campaign operatives quoted by NH Journal dismissed it as an outlier. They pointed to past UNH surveys that showed close races which later ended with wider margins. These are campaign professionals with a stake in the result, so their view is not a neutral methodological review.

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Are There Polls for Kelly Ayotte (R) in the New Hampshire Governor Race?

Yes. Public polling exists, and most of it favors Ayotte. Figures cited in this article:

Poll	Result
UNH Granite State Poll (Oct. 27-31)	Ayotte 48, Warmington 48
Rasmussen (Oct. 20-23)	Ayotte 52, Warmington 42
NYT/Siena	Ayotte +11
UMass Lowell	Ayotte +6
RealClearPolling average (five polls)	Ayotte 50.2, Warmington 41.4

The Rasmussen, NYT/Siena and UMass Lowell results are according to MultiState. Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News all rate the race Likely Republican. UNH is the one major poll showing a tie. It also found Ayotte more personally popular than Warmington, even as the two finished level on the ballot question.

A tie in one survey and an 8.8-point average can coexist. They form a spread of results, and UNH sits at the far edge of it. The 84% price is not a forecast that Ayotte wins 84% of the vote. It means traders still treat her as a strong favorite to win, with more doubt than they priced before Nov. 1.

The campaign's closing stretch sharpened the contrasts without settling the polling dispute. At the Oct. 29 WMUR debate, Ayotte attacked Warmington's past lobbying work for Purdue Pharma, and Warmington tied Ayotte to Trump's economy. The candidates also split on data centers. Ayotte would put a moratorium in her next budget, while Warmington wants one on day one, according to WMUR.

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Readers tracking price changes can follow the New Hampshire Governor winner market as results arrive. With the election one day away as of Nov. 2, there is little time left for new polls. Election Day will decide whether the UNH tie was an outlier or the earliest sign of a closer race than the average suggests.