Who Will Win the Iowa Senate Election? Polls and Latest News

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Iowa Senate Election Winner

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Nov. 3, 2026: Iowa Senate Polls: Turek Overtakes Hinson in Market on Election Eve

Iowa Senate Race Polls: Turek vs. Hinson on Election Eve

The final New York Times/Siena poll of Iowa's open Senate race, fielded Oct. 23 to Nov. 1, showed Democrat Josh Turek at 48% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 47%. Of the seven battleground Senate races the Times polled, Iowa had the smallest margin. A final GrayHouse poll pointed the other way, with Hinson ahead 48% to 46%. The seat is open because Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring.

Traders moved on the tie. Turek reached a record 52% on Kalshi on Nov. 2, 2026, and became the market favorite for the first time, according to Kalshi News. He had been the underdog for the whole life of the contract. Hinson priced above 80% when it launched in December 2024. Our data shows Turek at 51% across platforms on Nov. 3, up about 7 percentage points from 44% over three days. That figure blends three venues. The 52% is Kalshi's own record. Details are on the Iowa Senate Election Winner market page.

Are There Polls for Josh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson?

Yes. The NYT/Siena survey of 705 likely voters found Turek ahead by one point. That lead sits well within the margin of error, and the Times described the race as "effectively tied." The same poll found that 46% of Iowans strongly disapprove of President Trump's job performance. An earlier Marist poll, taken Oct. 8 to 11, had Turek ahead 48% to 45%.

The GrayHouse poll arrived roughly a day after NYT/Siena and showed Hinson ahead by 2. The available sources do not say who sponsored it.

Polls and markets measure different things. A poll reports how voters say they will vote. A market price is a traded probability that a candidate wins. Turek's 52% on Kalshi does not mean traders expect him to take 52% of the vote. Kalshi's separate margin contract priced a Turek win by about 0.6 points.

How the Turek Market Moved on Kalshi

On Nov. 2, Kalshi News reported that Turek gained nearly eight percentage points in 24 hours, lowering Hinson's implied probability to 48%. Polymarket priced Turek at 52% and PredictIt at 50%. That two-point spread across venues suggests the platforms broadly agree. The rally came alongside the NYT/Siena release. The Senate control market also leaned toward Democrats in the same window.

Early voting data gave Turek supporters some encouragement. About 20% of Iowa's roughly 2.2 million registered voters had already cast ballots. Democrats made up 47% of those early voters and Republicans 34%, according to TargetSmart figures cited by NBC News. Early ballots usually lean Democratic, so this does not predict the final result.

What Cuts Against Turek's Lead in the Iowa Senate Race

The GrayHouse poll is the most direct challenge to Turek's position. It was the later of the two final polls, and it put Hinson ahead. Trump also rallied for Hinson in Dubuque on Nov. 1.

Turek faced trouble within his own party as well. A late-October ad opposing "taxpayers paying for sex changes" drew criticism from fellow Democrats. Osceola County Democratic chair Kathy Winter said she would not vote for him. The sources do not show whether the ad moved polls or prices. Critics also point out that Turek missed 58% of legislative votes this year.

History favors Hinson too. Democrats have not won a Senate election in Iowa since 2008. On the final day, Hinson rallied in Des Moines with Chuck Grassley and Zach Nunn, while Turek campaigned in Onawa, Le Mars and Sioux City, KCCI reported.

A price of 52% means the race is close to a coin flip. It does not give Turek a decisive edge.

How the Iowa Senate Election Winner Market Settles

The contract pays out on whether Turek (D) or Hinson (R) wins Iowa's Senate seat in the Nov. 3 election. Full settlement terms are in the widget's rules link.

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Earlier Updates

Sept. 22, 2026: Turek Leads Hinson by 8 Points in Iowa Senate Marist Poll

Republican party61% → 53%▼8

On September 22, a Marist poll showed Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Ashley Hinson 50% to 42% among Iowa registered voters, his largest lead of the cycle. The poll also found 43% of voters say their vote is mostly against Donald Trump, compared with 22% who say it is mostly in support of him.