NC-11 Polls: Ager Leads Balkcom 47-44 in PPP (D) Survey
3 venues28%Up1 ptsfrom 27% when published, 5 days ago
- Traders have marked down the Republican's chances in western North Carolina, leaving her roughly a one-in-four shot to hold the seat.
NC-11 Polls: Jamie Ager Leads Jennifer Balkcom 47% to 44% in the Latest Poll Located
The latest NC-11 poll located in this check, from Public Policy Polling (D) and fielded Sept. 10-11, 2026, shows Democrat Jamie Ager at 47% and Republican Jennifer Balkcom at 44% among registered voters, a 3-point margin with 9% undecided, per the poll listing. Balkcom's price in the "NC-11 House winner?" market fell from 33% to 26% over three days, the same direction as the poll.
| Pollster / source | Fieldwork dates | Sample base | Jamie Ager | Jennifer Balkcom | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-11 | registered voters | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Are There Polls for Jennifer Balkcom (R) in NC-11?
This check located one poll: the PPP (D) survey above. One poll cannot establish what all polling in the race shows. Balkcom became the nominee only on Aug. 10, 2026, when the NC GOP's 11th District executive committee selected her after Rep. Chuck Edwards dropped his reelection bid amid sexual harassment allegations, Politico reports.
The poll and the market measure different things. The 47% to 44% split is vote intention among respondents on two September days. The 26% figure is an implied probability that Balkcom wins on Nov. 3. One cannot be converted into the other. A 3-point poll deficit and a market pricing her well below even both point toward Ager, and that is agreement, not a contradiction.
Live market odds
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Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket and PredictIt.
Jennifer Balkcom (R)In this story
22%Jamie Ager (D)
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Jamie Ager's Cash Advantage Over Jennifer Balkcom in Q3 FEC Reports
Q3 FEC reports show Ager with $1.64 million cash on hand against $295,085 for Balkcom, more than five to one, according to the Carolina Journal and the Hendersonville Lightning. Ager has raised $5.4 million and spent about $3.8 million. Cash on hand measures resources for the final weeks, not votes.
Jennifer Balkcom NC-11 Market Price: 33% to 26% Over Three Days
Balkcom traded at 26% on Oct. 17, 2026, down 7 points from 33% three days earlier. Venues disagree: PredictIt prices her at 29% and Polymarket at 24%.
The FEC coverage appeared during the decline, but we could not establish what caused the move; the poll and filings are context, not proven causes. Because Libertarian Travis Groo is also on the ballot, the remaining 74% is the probability that anyone other than Balkcom wins, not a price on Ager alone. Live prices sit on the NC-11 House winner odds page.
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The story so far: NC-11 House winner?
7 updates · Jul 22 – Oct 6
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