Titans' Odds of NFL's Worst Record Hit 30% After 0-5 Start

Tennessee's chance of finishing with the NFL's worst regular-season record rose from 22% to 30% in Kalshi's "Pro Football Worst Regular Season Record?" market over the three days ending Oct. 17, after the Titans fell to 0-5. The fifth loss came Oct. 11, a 26-3 home defeat to a Houston team that entered 0-4 and earned its first win. Miami and the Los Angeles Chargers are also winless.

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Titans' Chance of the NFL's Worst Record Rises to 30% After 0-5 Start

Tennessee's implied probability gained about 8 percentage points from the period low. The move followed the Houston loss.

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Pro Football Worst Regular Season Record?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

TennesseeIn this story

16%

Kalshi6.25x16¢

Arizona

5%

Kalshi16.67x6¢

Los Angeles C

14%

Kalshi6.67x15¢

Miami

51%

Kalshi1.89x53¢

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The case against Tennessee rests on its offense. The Titans have scored 58 points and allowed 109 through five games, a -51 differential. Their earlier losses were 23-10 to the Jets, 24-20 to Philadelphia, 12-7 at the Giants and 24-18 at Baltimore. Second-year quarterback Cam Ward, the 2025 No. 1 pick, has 896 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Head coach Robert Saleh has publicly preached patience, and Ward says he remains motivated by the challenge of turning the team around.

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Why Miami and the Chargers Keep Tennessee From Being the Clear Favorite

Miami's -62 point differential (70 points scored, 132 allowed) is the league's worst, 11 points below Tennessee's, per Pro Football Reference. That gap matters in a race decided by losses, and it helps explain why the market still prices the Titans below even odds. Tennessee's three closest losses, by four, five and six points, show a team that has stayed competitive in most of its games. Ryan Fitzpatrick has publicly said 0-17 is "within reach" for Miami. The Chargers are also 0-5, matching Tennessee's record.

Tennessee's next test is Week 6 at Indianapolis on Sunday, Oct. 18 (noon CDT). Safety Kevin Winston Jr. (quad) and defensive lineman Jordan Elliott (personal) are out, and running back Tyjae Spears (knee) is questionable, per Titans Wire. Safety Amani Hooker has cleared concussion protocol, and cornerback Joshua Williams is in a return-from-IR window, according to the team.

After Indianapolis, the Titans host Cleveland on Oct. 25 and visit Cincinnati on Nov. 1. A win against the Colts would likely pressure Tennessee's price, and a sixth loss would likely extend the move. Miami's and the Chargers' Week 6 results will shift Tennessee's relative standing just as much. Traders can follow those swings on the Pro Football Worst Regular Season Record market page.