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Live prediction market odds for NC-11 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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NC-11 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Jamie Ager (D)63¢1.59xPolymarket USJennifer Balkcom (R)38¢2.63xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Jamie Ager (D) about a 63.2% chance. Jennifer Balkcom (R) follows at 37.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Traders give Jamie Ager (D) about a 63.2% chance. Jennifer Balkcom (R) follows at 37.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NC-11 House race for the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the region.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JA
Jamie Ager (D)
63%
Kalshi65¢
Polymarket US63¢
Polymarket63¢
Polymarket US1.59x63¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
65.0%64¢65¢35¢36¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
62.0%62¢63¢37¢38¢
PolymarketPolymarket
62.5%62¢63¢37¢38¢
JB
Jennifer Balkcom (R)
37%
Kalshi38¢
Polymarket US39¢
Polymarket37¢
Kalshi2.63x38¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
37.5%37¢38¢62¢63¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
37.0%37¢39¢61¢63¢
PolymarketPolymarket
37.0%36¢37¢63¢64¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Jamie Ager (D)

Jamie Ager is a Democratic candidate for North Carolina's 11th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. He is a fourth-generation farmer and CEO of Hickory Nut Gap Farm in Fairview, North Carolina. Ager has raised over $3 million from approximately 7,000 individual donors, emphasizing his strong grassroots support and financial backing.

About Jennifer Balkcom (R)

Jennifer Balkcom is a Republican member of the North Carolina House of Representatives, representing District 117 in Henderson County. She was selected by the NC-11 Republican Party's executive committee in August 2026 to replace U.S. Representative Chuck Edwards on the November ballot for North Carolina's 11th Congressional District. Balkcom's legislative experience and local roots position her as a significant contender in the upcoming congressional race.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Jamie Ager (D)

63.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: NC-11 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NC-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NC-11 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the NC-11 House race?

Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements also play a crucial role in shaping market perceptions.

How do prediction markets determine the likely winner?

Prediction markets aggregate the collective opinions of participants, who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Prices reflect the perceived probability of each candidate winning.

Why is the NC-11 House race considered important?

The NC-11 House race is significant as it could impact the overall composition of the House of Representatives. Additionally, it serves as a barometer for national political trends and voter engagement.

What does the NC-11 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NC-11 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Jamie Ager (D): 65.0¢ on Kalshi, 62.5¢ on Polymarket, 62.0¢ on Polymarket US; Jennifer Balkcom (R): 37.5¢ on Kalshi, 37.0¢ on Polymarket, 37.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Committee Pick Balkcom Leaves Republicans at 32% in NC-11Republican odds fell 8 points in three days after a party committee replaced Chuck Edwards with state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom, who has never run district-wide.Aug 31, 2026Balkcom Replaces Edwards in NC-11, but Ager Holds $2.2M Cash EdgeRepublican Jennifer Balkcom enters NC-11 with no federal fundraising base and 73 days left. Kalshi prices GOP at 36%, Polymarket at 28%.Aug 23, 2026Balkcom Replaces Edwards in NC-11, GOP Climbs to 32%Jennifer Balkcom enters NC-11 after Chuck Edwards exits over ethics censure. Republicans trail Democrat Jamie Ager but have gained 8 points in three days.Aug 21, 2026Chuck Edwards Exit Sends NC-11 GOP Odds to 30%Republican odds in NC-11 fell 12 points in three days. The party has gone two weeks since Edwards withdrew without naming a replacement candidate.
Aug 19, 2026