Rubio's NH Primary Odds Fall 10 Points Despite Tie With Vance

Marco Rubio's chances in PredictIt's market on who will win the 2028 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire fell from 28% to 18% in three days, even though the last public poll of the state showed him tied with JD Vance at 38%. Saint Anselm College's October survey produced that tie. The coverage reviewed for this article shows no new New Hampshire poll, endorsement or withdrawal in the past three days.

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Why Did Marco Rubio's New Hampshire Primary Chances Fall From 28% to 18%?

PredictIt's "Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire?" market priced Rubio at 18% on Nov. 13, 2026. Three days earlier, the same contract stood at 28%. The 18% price is also the lowest of that three-day period.

The fall coincides with a post-midterm reshuffle in the national nomination market. One working hypothesis is that traders carried that reshuffle into the New Hampshire contract. The available sources do not establish that link.

Live market odds

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Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and PredictIt.

Marco RubioIn this story

22%

KalshiBest price4.55x22¢PredictIt4.00x25¢

J.D. Vance

33%

PredictItBest price3.45x29¢Kalshi2.56x39¢

Ron DeSantis

8%

PredictItBest price20.00x5¢Kalshi8.33x12¢

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What Changed in Rubio's National 2028 Nomination Odds After the Midterms?

Ron DeSantis is the biggest mover nationally. His odds on Kalshi's 2028 Republican nominee contract more than tripled, from 4.8% on Election Day to 17% by Nov. 10, Kalshi News reported. Over the same span, Rubio slid about six percentage points to 17%, which left the two men tied for second behind Vance at 34%. Kalshi's nominee market later showed Vance at 35%, Rubio at 17% and DeSantis at 16%.

The candidates have staked out different readings of the party's midterm loss. According to CNBC, as quoted by Kalshi News, Vance blames the war in Iran, Rubio defends it, and DeSantis says Republicans "fought the wrong battles." An Axios report from Nov. 8 said DeSantis is considering a bid. DeSantis himself said only that "this is a very uncertain time." Nate Silver argued on Nov. 12 that the field has opened up.

The New Hampshire drop of about 10 percentage points is larger than Rubio's national decline of about six. The sources do not account for that gap.

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Are There Polls for Marco Rubio in New Hampshire?

Yes. Rubio has climbed steadily in New Hampshire surveys this year:

• February: Vance led 53% to 7%.
• June (Saint Anselm): Vance 37%, Rubio 30%.
• July (UNH Granite State Poll, 579 likely GOP primary voters, margin of error ±4.1): Vance 36%, Rubio 26%, with Rand Paul and Nikki Haley at 8% each and DeSantis at 6%.
• October 19-20 (Saint Anselm, 1,672 likely voters): Vance and Rubio tied at 38%, DeSantis at 5%, and 11% undecided.

No newer New Hampshire poll turned up. That means the October tie predates the market move and cannot explain it. Neil Levesque of the NH Institute of Politics said the October result could open the door for other Republicans to campaign in the state.

A poll and a market price measure different things. A poll records voters' stated preference on the days it was fielded. A market price is a trader-implied probability that a candidate wins a primary more than a year away, and Rubio has not declared a candidacy. MS NOW reported Oct. 14 that his aides say he would likely need to decide by summer 2027. Rubio has also said he would back Vance if Vance runs.

The resulting divergence is wide: Rubio is tied for first in the latest poll but priced at 18% in the market. Kalshi's New Hampshire contract listed Rubio at 25%, behind Vance at 33%, though that price carried no date.

Nationally, polling also leans toward Vance. He led 14 of the 15 most recent national polls, The New York Times reported. McLaughlin & Associates' Oct. 30 to Nov. 5 survey had Vance at 35%, Rubio at 17% and DeSantis at 14%. AtlasIntel's pre-midterm poll was the exception, with Rubio leading 46% to 33%.

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What Would Explain the Rubio Drop, and What Remains Unknown?

What is known:

• The New Hampshire move was 10 percentage points in three days.
• The October Saint Anselm poll showed a tie.
• On Kalshi, Rubio lost ground nationally while DeSantis rose.

What is unknown: the cause of the New Hampshire move. The clearest test is the next New Hampshire poll, especially if it records DeSantis well above his October 5%. Rubio's live price is tracked on the New Hampshire Republican primary market page.

The contract settles on the actual result of the New Hampshire Republican primary, with a listed resolution date of Nov. 7, 2028.