SEC Title Chances Fall to 38% After Georgia, Alabama Lose in Week 7

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SEC Chances of Winning the National Championship Fall From 44% to 38%

The SEC's chances in Polymarket's Conference to Win the National Championship market fell from 44% to 38% over the three days ending Oct. 20, a drop of about 6 points. On Oct. 17, 2026, five of the AP top seven lost on the same day, according to Covers. Two of the casualties were SEC teams: No. 1 Georgia lost to Auburn, and No. 6 Alabama lost to Tennessee.

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The losses landed on the conference's two most prominent title contenders. Georgia entered the week as the only unbeaten SEC team after winning in Tuscaloosa in Week 6, and Sports Illustrated had framed it as the favorite for the SEC title game and a likely No. 1 playoff seed. No source we reviewed ties the SEC's decline to a single event; the Georgia and Alabama losses are the most consistent explanation, but that link is inferred.

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What Could Confirm or Reverse the SEC's 38% Price

The next test is the Week 8 slate and the AP poll that follows it. We could not verify the poll's release date or the full Week 8 schedule for Georgia and Alabama from the sources.

Further SEC losses, or steep poll drops for Georgia and Alabama, would be consistent with the decline extending. Clean wins and a recovery in the rankings would be consistent with a move back toward 44%. Readers can track whether the SEC holds near 38% on the Conference to Win the National Championship odds page or in the live market below.

Live market odds

2 venues

Conference to Win the National Championship

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

SECIn this story

37%

PolymarketBest price2.70x37¢Kalshi2.63x38¢

ACC

13%

PolymarketBest price7.14x14¢Kalshi6.67x15¢

Big 12

6%

KalshiBest price14.29x7¢Polymarket8.55x11.7¢

Big Ten

27%

KalshiBest price3.70x27¢Polymarket3.33x30¢

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The next AP poll release is the first milestone that can confirm or reverse the SEC's slide.