Will Gas Be Above $4.25 on Election Day? Russia Waiver Hits Oil

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Will Gas Prices Be Above $4.25 on Election Day 2026? The Market Now Says 38%

Gas prices may fall below $4.25 by Election Day, but the AAA national average was still $4.2786 on Oct. 20, about 3 cents above the line that settles Kalshi's US gas prices on Election Day market. It was down from $4.3413 a week earlier and $4.4761 a month earlier. The decline followed an executive order from President Trump waiving some Russia-related sanctions, which pushed oil and gasoline futures lower.

Live market odds

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US gas prices on Election Day

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

Above 4.25In this story

47%

Kalshi2.00x50¢

Above 4.00

97%

Kalshi1.03x97¢

Above 4.50

2%

Kalshi33.33x3¢

Above 4.75

2%

Kalshi50.00x2¢

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Over the three days through Oct. 20, the Above 4.25 contract fell from 52% to 38%, a drop of about 14 percentage points, its lowest level in that window. The contract resolves YES only if AAA's regular-gasoline average sits strictly above $4.25 on Nov. 3.

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What the Russia Sanctions Waiver Changed for Oil, and What It Hasn't

The order Trump issued on Friday night, Oct. 17, waived key Russia-related sanctions and tariffs, including duties on Russian goods and penalties for buying the country's oil and gas, according to Reuters via CNBC. CNBC reported that oil slid as traders priced in the prospect of more Russian supply, and the Wall Street Journal tied the decline to the waiver. US gasoline futures fell to about $3.18 a gallon.

The waiver may not hold. Trump said on Saturday that he had not made a final decision, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said officials want more time to evaluate the situation, with a 60-day review window reported. That review would end after Nov. 3, so a formal answer is unlikely before the market resolves.

Crude has eased, but it has not collapsed. WTI's December contract settled at $98.54 on Oct. 19, while Brent settled at $109.55 after touching $110.70, its highest since May 20. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites and tanker strikes in the Persian Gulf have kept benchmarks near or above $100. Russia's output adds little cushion: the IEA put September production at 8.43 million barrels per day, about 870,000 bpd below a year earlier.

The link between the waiver and the contract's 14-point drop is an inference from timing. We could not establish the cause of the move.

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What to Watch Before Election Day for the $4.25 Line

• The daily AAA reading. With a gap of about 3 cents, a few days of penny-level declines would put the average under $4.25. AAA said on Oct. 15 that the average had barely budged as crude stayed high, and al.com's Oct. 19 AAA data showed a 6-cent weekly drop.
• Trump or Rubio statements. A move to finalize, narrow or withdraw the waiver would test the futures decline directly.
• Futures and Middle East attacks. A fresh Houthi or Gulf strike that lifts Brent back toward $110 would work against further pump relief.

Live prices for every threshold are on the US gas prices on Election Day market page.

The AAA average fell about 6 cents in the week to Oct. 20. If that pace held for one more week, the average would fall below $4.25 before Nov. 3. That is arithmetic, not a forecast.