Toronto Mayor Polls: Chow Leads Bradford 51% to 47% in Nanos

---

Are There Polls for Brad Bradford in the 2026 Toronto Mayoral Race?

Yes. The Toronto mayoral polls located in this check, fielded Oct. 6 to 14, 2026, show Mayor Olivia Chow leading Councillor Brad Bradford by 2 to 6 points. The Nanos Research survey fielded Oct. 8 to 10 (n=757) found Chow at 51% and Bradford at 47% among decided voters, per CP24. On Polymarket, Bradford's chance of winning rose from 24% to 30% over three days.

Public polling located as of 2026-10-16. Two leading candidates in the newest row; other candidates omitted. Compare like-for-like respondent bases; pollster methods may differ.

Pollster / source	Fieldwork dates	Sample base	Olivia Chow	Brad Bradford	Undecided
Pallas Data	2026-10-14 to 2026-10-14	decided and leaning voters	52%	46%	Not reported
Nanos Research	2026-10-08 to 2026-10-10	decided voters	51%	47%	Not reported
Liaison Strategies	2026-10-08 to 2026-10-09	decided and leaning voters	51%	46%	Not reported
Mainstreet Research	2026-10-06 to 2026-10-07	all respondents	40.8%	38.3%	10%
Forum Research	2026-10-06 to 2026-10-06	decided and leaning voters	46%	42%	Not reported
Scope Research	2026-10-06 to 2026-10-06	all respondents	44%	41%	11%

The polls use different bases. Nanos, Liaison Strategies and Pallas Data report decided or decided and leaning voters, while Mainstreet Research and Scope Research report all respondents with 10% and 11% undecided. Those figures are not comparable as changes in support. With undecideds included, the same Nanos survey showed Chow 43%, Bradford 39% and 17% undecided.

The market and the polls point the same way: Chow still leads, the gap is narrower, and traders give Bradford a rising but still minority chance. These are polls located in this check, not every poll published. Vote intention also is not a win probability.

---

Did Chris Alexander Leave the Toronto Mayor Race, and What Did Nanos Find?

Yes. Former MP Chris Alexander dropped out before Chow and Bradford met in their first debate without him on Oct. 6, according to CityNews. Nanos' previous poll had Chow ahead by nearly 10 points. The Oct. 8 to 10 survey cut that lead to 4 points among decided voters, CP24 reported. The sources do not show where Alexander's supporters went.

Liaison Strategies found a sharp divide by housing status. Chow led renters 57% to 40%, and Bradford led homeowners 50% to 45%, per Toronto Life. On Oct. 15, Bradford said Chow's pledge of 15,000 youth jobs showed she was "running out of steam," CTV News reported.

We could not establish what caused the market move.

---

Brad Bradford's Odds to Win the Toronto Mayoral Election

Live market odds

2 venues

Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Brad BradfordIn this story

49%

PolymarketBest price2.04x49¢Kalshi2.00x50¢

Olivia Chow

53%

KalshiBest price1.89x53¢Polymarket1.89x53¢

New to Kalshi? Get a $35 trading bonus

Code PRED35. New users only. Eligibility restrictions and terms apply.

Claim offer

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

Bradford traded at 30% on Oct. 16. That is up from 24%, the low within the three-day recorded window.

1D7D30D

A 30% price for Bradford implies 70% for any other winner combined, not for Chow alone, because other candidates remain on the ballot. The price is a traded implied probability. It is not a poll and not a forecast model. The market resolves on Oct. 26. Live prices for every candidate are on the 2026 Toronto mayoral election odds page.