Toronto Mayoral Race Polls: Chow Leads Bradford 51%-47% as Gap Narrows

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Olivia Chow Still Leads Brad Bradford in Toronto Mayoral Race Polls, but the Gap Is Narrowing

Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford in Toronto's mayoral race polls, but the margin has narrowed. A Nanos poll for CP24 and CTV News Toronto, fielded Oct. 8-10 and released Oct. 13, puts Chow at 51% and Bradford at 47% among decided voters, according to CP24. The prior Nanos poll had her up nearly 10 points. Another 17% remain undecided, and election day is Oct. 26, 2026.

The prediction market has moved the other way. On "Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?", Chow's implied probability rose from 69% to 75% over three days, as of Oct. 14. The Toronto mayoral election odds page has live pricing.

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Are There Polls for Olivia Chow? How the Nanos Numbers Compare With the Market's 75%

Public polls on Chow exist, and two recent surveys agree. Nanos surveyed 757 Toronto residents for its Oct. 8-10 poll. A separate Liaison Strategies IVR poll (Oct. 8-9, n=1,000) has Chow ahead 51%-46% among decided and leaning voters, NOW Toronto reported. Liaison also found the race splits by housing tenure. Chow leads renters 57-40, and Bradford leads homeowners 50-45.

| Poll | Dates | Sample | Chow | Bradford | Other | Undecided | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Nanos, decided voters | Oct. 8-10 | 757 | 51% | 47% | n/a | n/a | | Nanos, all respondents | Oct. 8-10 | 757 | 43% | 39% | 1% | 17% | | Liaison, decided and leaning | Oct. 8-9 | 1,000 | 51% | 46% | n/a | n/a |

A poll and a market price measure different things.

• The polls: 51% is Chow's share of decided voters on Oct. 8-10. It is not her chance of winning, and it leaves the 17% undecided unallocated.
• The market: 75% is traders' implied probability that Chow wins the election. It is not a forecast of her vote share.

A lead of 3.5 to 5 points can be consistent with favorite status, because the market prices who wins rather than by how much. The Nanos poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, according to CP24, so the 3.5-point gap is within that margin.

On Oct. 14 the two venues sat close together: Kalshi at 74% and Polymarket at 76%.

Live market odds

2 venues

Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Olivia ChowIn this story

52%

KalshiBest price1.92x52¢Polymarket1.89x53¢

Brad Bradford

49%

PolymarketBest price2.04x49¢Kalshi2.00x50¢

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Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

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Why Chow's Odds Rose While Her Poll Lead Shrank

The tension is easy to state. Chow's lead in the Nanos series fell by roughly 6 points, while her market price rose about 6 percentage points. We could not establish the cause of the rise.

The poll itself points to where Bradford gained. Nanos attributes part of the shift to Chris Alexander suspending his campaign on Oct. 6. Alexander had polled around 4%. Nik Nanos wrote that Chow draws strength from Toronto and East York, women and voters under 55. Bradford does better in North York, among men and among voters 55 and older. Etobicoke/York is close, with Bradford at about 42.2% and Chow at 39%, and Scarborough is close to even. "With 17 per cent undecided, Toronto's race remains an open contest," Nanos said.

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What to Watch Before Toronto's Oct. 26 Mayoral Vote

• Turnout: Advance voting from Oct. 6 to 11 drew more than 222,000 ballots, up nearly 72% from the 2023 byelection, according to CBC News. Both campaigns claim the surge favors them.
• Endorsements: Bradford has Rush's Geddy Lee. Chow has Blue Rodeo's Jim Cuddy and LIUNA Local 183. Liberal MPs are split, CBC News reported.
• New polls: Further surveys will show whether Bradford's gain after Alexander's exit continues or levels off.
• Settlement: The market resolves on the winner of the Oct. 26, 2026 election.