Olivia Chow's Toronto Mayor Chances Slip to 68% as Polls Split

Olivia Chow's chances of winning the 2026 Toronto mayoral election narrowed after polls released Oct. 20 disagreed on who leads. Mainstreet put Brad Bradford at 48.9% to Chow's 47.5%. Nanos had Chow at 49.8% to 46.6%. Pollara had Chow ahead 53% to 46%. A Build Canada poll also showed Bradford ahead. The CP24 debate on Oct. 22 and the vote on Oct. 26 come next.

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Olivia Chow's Chances of Winning Toronto Mayor Fall to 68% After Split Polls

In the "Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?" market, Chow's implied probability fell from 74% to 68% over three days, a drop of about 6 percentage points. Kalshi and Polymarket both priced Chow at 68% on Oct. 20, so the two venues agree.

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The chart shows the market's implied probability that Chow wins. It is not a vote share.

The decline followed the Oct. 20 poll releases. We could not establish a direct cause beyond that timing.

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Are There Polls for Olivia Chow's Toronto Mayoral Race?

Yes. Four firms published results around the same time, and they point in different directions.

| Pollster | Field dates | Leader | Margin | |---|---|---|---| | Mainstreet | Oct. 16-18 (n=1,000) | Bradford | +1.4 | | Build Canada | Oct. 11-16 | Bradford | about +4 (approx. 48% to 44%, decided/leaning) | | Nanos (CP24/CTV) | Oct. 15-18 (n=762) | Chow | +3.2 | | Pollara | Oct. 13-19 | Chow | +7 |

Mainstreet and Build Canada both showed Bradford ahead, and the National Post treated them as two new polls putting him in front. CityNews reported the Mainstreet result as a narrow lead. Nanos calls its own result a statistical tie, with a margin of error of ±3.6 points and 16% of respondents undecided. That poll shows Chow down about a point from the previous Nanos survey and Bradford up nearly a point. Pollara shows a gender gap: Chow leads women 60-39, while Bradford leads men 52-45.

The trend runs against Chow. She led by about 10 points in early October after Chris Alexander suspended his campaign. Liaison Strategies had her ahead 51-46 on Oct. 8-9.

Polls estimate vote share. The market prices the probability of winning. A 68% chance means traders still see Chow as the favorite, which fits two of the four polls showing her ahead. It also leaves substantial room for a Bradford win, which reflects how far apart the pollsters are.

Live market odds

2 venues

Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Olivia ChowIn this story

53%

KalshiBest price1.89x53¢Polymarket1.89x53¢

Brad Bradford

49%

PolymarketBest price2.04x49¢Kalshi2.00x50¢

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What Could Move Chow's Odds Next: The Oct. 22 CP24 Debate

Chow and Bradford meet in CP24's commercial-free "Toronto Decides" debate on Thursday, Oct. 22, at 7 p.m. The moderator is Michelle Dube, and John Moore will bring viewer questions, according to CP24. Nik Nanos said the debate "could be the defining moment of the whole campaign." No source yet indicates which way it will cut.

Chow is campaigning on affordability and on pressing the Ford government for "real rent control," per CP24. Bradford has promised to eliminate TTC slow zones. Global News describes the two as neck-and-neck.

Polls fielded after the debate will be the clearest new evidence before the Oct. 26 vote. The Toronto mayoral election market tracks the price as those polls arrive.