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Live prediction market odds for Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

2026-10-26

Best price · tap to trade

Olivia Chow90¢1.11xKalshiBrad Bradford13¢7.69xKalshiAna Bailão0¢Polymarket
Compare all 8 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Olivia Chow about a 89.0% chance. Brad Bradford follows at 11.2%, Ana Bailão follows at 0.2%, and Kevin Clarke follows at 0.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Traders give Olivia Chow about a 89.0% chance. Brad Bradford follows at 11.2%, Ana Bailão follows at 0.2%, and Kevin Clarke follows at 0.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2026 Toronto mayoral election. This election is pivotal as it will shape the city's leadership and policies in a time of urban challenges and opportunities.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
OC
Olivia Chow
89%
Kalshi90¢
Polymarket88¢
Kalshi1.11x90¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
90.0%89¢90¢10¢11¢
PolymarketPolymarket
88.0%87¢88¢12¢13¢
BB
Brad Bradford
11%
Kalshi13¢
Polymarket12¢
Kalshi7.69x13¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
10.8%9¢13¢87¢91¢
PolymarketPolymarket
11.5%11¢12¢88¢89¢
AB
Ana Bailão
—
—
Polymarket500.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KC
Kevin Clarke
—
—
Polymarket500.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
JT
John Tory
0%
Kalshi4¢
—
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
0.2%0¢4¢96¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Olivia Chow

Olivia Chow is the current mayor of Toronto, having assumed office on July 12, 2023. She previously served as a member of Parliament for Trinity—Spadina from 2006 to 2014. As mayor, she is a central figure in the 2026 Toronto mayoral election.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.0%
Platforms2
Candidates8
Leader

Olivia Chow

89.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Brad Bradford wins the 2026 Toronto mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the 2026 Toronto mayoral election scheduled?

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is scheduled for October 26, 2026. This date is critical as it will determine the city's next mayor.

What factors influence the odds in the Toronto mayoral election markets?

Odds are influenced by polling data, candidate announcements, and public sentiment regarding key issues in Toronto. Economic conditions and local events also play a significant role.

How do prediction markets work for elections like the Toronto mayoral race?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect collective beliefs about the likelihood of each candidate winning.

Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Olivia Chow: 90.0¢ on Kalshi, 88.0¢ on Polymarket; Brad Bradford: 10.8¢ on Kalshi, 11.5¢ on Polymarket; Ana Bailão: 0.2¢ on Polymarket; Kevin Clarke: 0.2¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Chow Polls at 47% But Markets Price Her at 86%: Why the Gap ExistsA 7-point polling lead over Bradford translates to an 86% market price. Incumbency, a split opposition, and a progressive federal tailwind explain the spread.Sep 2, 2026Chow's Win Probability Drops 10 Points Despite 8-Point Poll LeadPrediction markets cut Chow from 88% to 78% as a Pallas Data poll shows 24% of Toronto voters undecided with eight weeks until October 26.Aug 30, 2026