Sherrod Brown Leads Husted 48-42 in BGSU Poll; Market Hits 67%

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Sherrod Brown Husted Polls: BGSU/YouGov Shows Brown Up 48%-42% as Market Hits 67%

A Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll shows Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted 48% to 42% in the Ohio Senate special election, according to WLWT. The survey was fielded Sept. 29 to Oct. 9 and released around Oct. 17. The Hill reported that the September BGSU poll had Brown up 48-45, so his margin widened from 3 points. The race is a special election for the remainder of JD Vance's term. Early voting is underway, and independent reports put ballots cast at about 452,000 through Oct. 15-16, according to a post on X.

In the "Ohio Senate winner? (Special)" market, Brown's implied probability rose from 61% to 67% over three days, reaching 67% on Oct. 18. The increase came as the poll was published. The sources connect the poll and the price change by timing only, and we could not establish what drove traders beyond that. Venue prices are close together: 66% on Kalshi, 68% on Polymarket and 66% on PredictIt.

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The same BGSU poll found Trump's Ohio approval at 39%. The president carried the state by 11 points in 2024. Brown was also viewed more favorably than Husted, The Hill reported.

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Are There Polls for Sherrod Brown (D) in the Ohio Senate Race?

Yes. Several public surveys were fielded from late September through early October, and their results differ:

• BGSU/YouGov (Sept. 29-Oct. 9): Brown 48%, Husted 42% (Brown +6)
• CNN/SSRS (Sept. 29-Oct. 5): Brown 49%, Husted 43% (Brown +6)
• NYT/Siena (Sept. 22-Oct. 1): Brown 49%, Husted 46% (Brown +3)
• co/efficient (Oct. 5-6): Husted 44%, Brown 43% (Husted +1)

The FiftyPlusOne polling average dated Oct. 18 has Brown at 47.9% and Husted at 43.7%, a lead of about 4 points. Decision Desk HQ's forecast gave Brown roughly 51% to 53% as of mid-October.

Live market odds

4 venues

Ohio Senate winner? (Special)

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and Predict.fun.

Sherrod Brown (D)In this story

71%

KalshiBest price1.43x70¢Polymarket1.41x71¢Predict.fun1.37x72.8¢PredictIt1.35x74¢

Jon Husted (R)

31%

PredictItBest price3.33x30¢Kalshi3.23x31¢Polymarket3.23x31¢Predict.fun3.13x32¢

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These figures measure different things. A poll estimates vote share. A market price is a trading price on who wins. A 4-point lead in the polls does not convert to a set win probability. Still, a 67% price shows more confidence in Brown than the roughly 51% to 53% forecast from Decision Desk HQ, which is built on the same polling.

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Is the BGSU Poll an Outlier in the Brown vs. Husted Race?

BGSU is not alone at the top of the range, since CNN/SSRS also had Brown up 6. But co/efficient's Husted +1 result came during the same field period, and the average falls between them at Brown +4. Coverage from Election Wire presented the BGSU numbers next to other polls showing closer races. The BGSU poll also found voters evenly split on who they expect to win.

The polling average does support the market leaning toward Brown. The open question is how large the move was. During Oct. 7-14, Voting Monitor found that markets drifted about 3 points toward Husted while the polls held steady. The recent 6-point jump reversed that drift and went further, even though the average barely changed.

Two things are worth watching: whether new October polls move closer to the BGSU and CNN results or to co/efficient's, and whether Brown stays near 67% if they come in tighter. Live prices are on the Ohio Senate special election odds page. The race resolves after Election Day on Nov. 3.