Texas' Title Odds Fall to 4% After Second Straight 27-24 Loss

Texas's national championship chances fell to 4% after Florida beat the Longhorns 27-24 in Austin on Oct. 17. It was Texas's second straight 27-24 loss to an unranked team, and it dropped the Longhorns to 4-2 and No. 19 in the AP poll. In the College Football National Championship Winner market, Texas fell from about 9% to 4% in three days. Yahoo Sports called Texas's College Football Playoff bid "all but over."

Live market odds

4 venues

College Football National Championship Winner

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket and Predict.fun.

TexasIn this story

4%

KalshiBest price25.00x4¢Polymarket US25.00x4¢Polymarket22.73x4.4¢

Ohio State

33%

KalshiBest price7.69x13¢Polymarket US7.14x14¢Polymarket6.25x16¢Predict.fun1.09x91.7¢

Notre Dame

33%

Polymarket USBest price7.69x13¢Kalshi7.14x14¢Polymarket6.67x15¢Predict.fun1.09x91.4¢

Indiana

29%

KalshiBest price12.50x8¢Polymarket12.50x8¢Polymarket US10.00x10¢Predict.fun1.09x91.7¢

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The two losses came quickly after a high point. Texas was ranked No. 1 after beating Ohio State in Week 2. It then lost 27-24 to Oklahoma and 27-24 to Florida, falling to 1-2 in SEC play. These are the program's first back-to-back losses since 2021, Steve Sarkisian's first season. As of Oct. 20, Kalshi and Polymarket both price Texas at 4%, just above the period low of 3%.

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What Went Wrong for Texas Against Florida: Manning Fumble and Simmons Injury Concern

The Florida game turned late. Arch Manning fumbled with about two minutes left, ending Texas's chance to rescue a game it trailed by three. The result also repeated the Oklahoma loss in Dallas, where Tate Sandell's 47-yard field goal at the end of the game beat Texas by the same 27-24 score.

The bigger roster concern is on defense. Colin Simmons, who leads the nation with 10.5 sacks, left the Florida game on a cart with a leg injury. According to Yahoo Sports, he could miss a few weeks. Texas has not released a confirmed timeline. On offense, the same report says Texas is considering giving freshman KJ Lacey reps with the first team. Fans in Austin are struggling too: CBS Austin captured supporters saying "the optimism... it's dwindling."

The sources do not show which factor moved the market most: the loss itself, the fumble, or Simmons's injury.

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Texas's Next Tests: Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M

Texas's remaining schedule includes Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M. The Ole Miss game comes first, at home.

These games will settle the question the 4% price leaves open. A winning streak through this stretch would challenge Yahoo's "all but over" verdict and could lift Texas off its lows. Another loss would back that verdict up, since a third defeat would likely end any realistic playoff path. The second thing to watch is Simmons: whether he returns, and when, will shape how much pressure Texas's defense can still generate. Live pricing for every contender is on the College Football National Championship Winner odds page.