Will Ethereum Hit $2,600 in October? Hot CPI Cuts Odds to 38%

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Will Ethereum Hit $2,600 in October? Market Odds Fell From 88% to 38% After the Oct 14 CPI

Ethereum now looks unlikely to hit $2,600 in October, according to Polymarket's "What price will Ethereum hit in October?" market, where the "↑ 2,600" outcome fell from 88% to 38%. The September CPI report, released Oct 14, showed prices rising 0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year, in line with the 0.6% monthly consensus, according to CNBC. ETH fell nearly 6%, from about $2,500 to about $2,350, according to crypto.news and CoinJournal.

Live market odds

2 venues

What price will Ethereum hit in October?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket and Predict.fun.

↑ 2,600In this story

32%

Polymarket3.13x32¢

↓ 2,300

51%

PolymarketBest price1.96x51¢Predict.fun1.90x52.7¢

↓ 2,200

23%

PolymarketBest price4.17x24¢Predict.fun3.89x25.7¢

↑ 4,500: under 1% eachShow all

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

The drop took three days and totaled about 50 percentage points. The outcome stood at 38% on Oct 15. ETH sits roughly 10% below the target, with about two weeks of October left.

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Why Ethereum Dropped After the CPI: Fed Hike Fears and $106M in Long Liquidations

The inflation surprise revived fears that the Federal Reserve could raise rates at its Oct 28 meeting. Higher rates usually hurt speculative assets like ETH. Leverage made the selloff worse. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported more than $106M in Binance ETH long liquidations within a single hour, the largest hourly ETH long wipeout in six months, crypto.news reported. Forced selling of that size added to the price drop.

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The selloff hit other cryptocurrencies too. Nearly $1 billion in leveraged crypto bets were liquidated as bitcoin, ether and XRP fell, according to CoinDesk. On Oct 15, ETH traded at $2,359.61 after an intraday low of $2,314.06, per Exa. The selling also undid a rally from Oct 13 and 14, when ETH had climbed from about $2,409 to about $2,500 after Interactive Brokers launched ETH staking and spot ETH ETFs posted their first inflows in 10 sessions.

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What Could Move the ETH $2,600 Odds Next

The question is whether ETH can recover about 10% before the market resolves on Nov 1. Key milestones:

• Pre-CPI level near $2,500: If ETH climbs back here, that would be the first sign that 38% underprices the move. Analysts cite resistance at $2,550 to $2,600 and at $2,618.
• Support near $2,300: Traders are watching this level. A break below it would widen the gap and support lower odds.
• Fed decision on Oct 28: A rate hike would confirm the fears that drove the selloff. A hold could ease the pressure in the final days of the month.

Live prices for every strike sit on the Ethereum October price targets market page.