Will Oil Hit a Record by Dec. 31? Odds Fall After Midterm Crash

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Will Crude Oil Hit a New All-Time High by December 31, 2026? Polymarket Says About 8%

Crude oil is unlikely to set a new all-time high by December 31, 2026, according to traders in Polymarket's "Crude Oil all time high by...?" market. Oil just posted its steepest weekly drop in decades. WTI traded at $90.34 and Brent at $97.97 on Nov. 7, according to OilPriceAPI. Those prices sit far below the $147.27 CME front-month record that settles the market.

Traders cut the December 31 contract to 8% on Nov. 7, down from 14% three days earlier. That is a fall of 6 percentage points, and 8% is the lowest level the contract has reached in that window.

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Crude Oil all time high by...?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket and Predict.fun.

December 31In this story

5%

PolymarketBest price20.00x5¢Predict.fun16.67x6¢

March 31, 2027

15%

Polymarket6.67x15¢

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The selloff came in the week of Nov. 2-6. Brent lost about 16-17% and WTI about 12-13%. Reuters called it Brent's biggest weekly drop since 2020, per Business Recorder, and LSEG data puts it as the steepest since 1988. Oil fell about 8% on Wednesday, Nov. 4 alone, reaching two-month lows.

CNBC reported that investors read Democrats' Nov. 3 midterm wins as raising the chance of de-escalation in the US-Israeli war with Iran. That war had built a large war-risk premium into oil prices. Traders also cited two signs of diplomacy:

• Vice President JD Vance said US-Iran talks had advanced.
• Iran reportedly sent a nuclear proposal through Qatar.

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Why the $147.27 Crude Oil Record Is Still About $57 Away

The arithmetic explains why the odds are so low. The record is $147.27, and WTI stood at $90.34 on Nov. 7. That leaves a gap of about $57. WTI would need to rise roughly 63% in under eight weeks to close it.

Brent's higher price, near $98, does not help YES holders. The market resolves only on the daily high of the CME CL front-month contract.

The threshold was out of reach even before the crash. Futures peaked near $118 in late October, still about $29 short of the record. The physical benchmark, Dated Brent, hit $144.42 on April 7, but that price does not count toward resolution.

Our analysis: the remaining 8% is not a bet that recent trends will continue. The latest trend pointed down. Instead, the 8% prices a new supply shock big enough to push front-month futures through a level they did not reach even at the height of the war. Eurasia Group's escalation case sees Brent at $110-125, which is still short of $147.27. Goldman Sachs sees Brent spiking to $140 if Middle East output stays low, and it places its roughly $130 average forecast in 2027, after this contract expires.

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What Could Reverse the Drop in Record-High Oil Odds

The Strait of Hormuz remains the clearest path to a reversal. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO) counted at least five tanker incidents in the week. A seafarer was killed in a tanker explosion on Nov. 5. Those attacks helped drive a rebound on Friday, Nov. 6, with WTI holding near $90.50 on Middle East supply risk, per FXStreet. Rapidan Energy puts the chance that fighting resumes at 80%. Kpler, KCM Trade and ING describe a market that finds support on dips and spikes on escalation headlines.

Several factors weigh against a new record:

• Oversupply: The market was moving toward a surplus of 1-1.4 million barrels per day by October.
• Recovering Gulf exports: Exports were back to about 75% of prewar levels by September.
• Steady OPEC+ output: The group held December targets unchanged on Nov. 1.
• Moderate forecasts: ANZ expects Brent at $105 on Dec. 31.

One factor could amplify a shock. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is at its lowest level since 1982, which leaves less of a buffer if supply is disrupted.

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The next scheduled data point is the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) outlook on Nov. 10. Beyond that, watch for a breakdown or confirmation of US-Iran talks before the Dec. 31 resolution. Live prices for every expiry, including the March 31, 2027 contract, are on the Crude Oil all-time high odds page.