Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates Again in 2026? Latest News

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Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket and Predict.fun.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?In this story

97%

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Background

The question is whether the Federal Reserve will raise its federal funds target range again at any remaining 2026 meeting. The Fed raised rates a quarter point in September, its first hike in three years, then held the range at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28 by a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike. Chairman Kevin Warsh has given no explicit rate-path guidance.

The December 8-9 FOMC meeting is the last of 2026, so it is the only event left that can resolve the market YES. A hike of any size at that meeting resolves it YES, and a hold resolves it NO. The market resolves December 10. Because size does not matter, the signals to read are the dissent count and how far officials, such as Governor Christopher Waller, move toward a larger hike.

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Nov. 12, 2026: Will the Fed Raise Rates Again in December 2026? Odds Jump to 96%

Will the Fed Raise Rates Again in December 2026? Markets Say Yes After Hot October CPI

Yes, markets lean heavily toward another Fed hike at the December 8-9 meeting. On Nov. 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that October CPI rose 0.4% and core CPI rose 0.3% for a third straight month, against a 0.2% consensus. After the release, CME FedWatch priced a December hike at about 88%, and Kalshi's December contract showed a 25bp hike at about 86%.

The Polymarket contract "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?" traded at 96% on Nov. 12, up roughly 16 percentage points from 80% over three days, according to market data. The contract's period low was 79%. That reading comes from a single tracker, and the exact three-day path is unverified.

Why the October CPI Print Hits Waller's 50bp Threshold

The CPI print mattered because Governor Christopher Waller had already said what would change his view. In a speech in London just before the release, Waller said he would back a 25bp hike in December and that a 50bp hike should be considered if core CPI came in at 0.3% or higher. October's 0.3% core reading met that bar, and traders raised odds of a half-point move in response. Waller has not committed to 50bp. The data only met his condition for considering it.

Chart reflects single-tracker data for the 2026 hike contract.

Other officials sounded similarly hawkish. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said at least two more 25bp hikes are needed and that the Fed could move more rapidly this winter. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the report "borderline disturbing" and said "we've got a real inflation issue on our hands," though he declined to specify a December move. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson favored only gradual tightening, and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman voiced concern about inflation without urging speed, according to the Associated Press.

What Could Confirm or Reverse the 96% Pricing for a 2026 Fed Hike

The 96% figure has a conflict. TokenPost reported 2026 hike odds near 5% on Nov. 11, and the two readings remain unreconciled. CME FedWatch and Kalshi price the December meeting specifically, so their 86% to 88% readings support the direction of the move but do not confirm the 96% level.

The 2026 Fed rate hike market resolves on Dec. 10, the day after the final FOMC meeting of the year. A hike of any size on Dec. 8-9 resolves it YES, and a hold resolves it NO. The open questions for that meeting are how many officials follow Waller toward 50bp and whether Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has declined to signal further increases, leads the committee there.

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Earlier Updates

Nov. 10, 2026: Fed December Hike Odds Hit 90% as Waller Floats a 50bp Move

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?76% → 90%▲14

On Nov. 10, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a London speech that he is "leaning toward" a December increase even if October inflation comes in softer than expected, and that a half-point move "should be considered" if readings run hotter. He called a 25 basis point hike a credibility risk he is "not eager to take," and CNBC reported his remarks.

Oct. 30, 2026: Fed Hike Odds Dip to 71% After 10-2 Hold as Cook, Hammack Dissent

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?76% → 71%▼5

On Oct. 30, the Fed's October 28 hold at 3.75%-4.00% drew scrutiny after a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase. Chairman Kevin Warsh gave no explicit forward guidance at his press conference but signaled the Fed's job is not done, which Bloomberg read as telegraphing more hikes. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams backed the hold, saying conditions allow time to evaluate the next move.