Who Will Win the Spain General Election? Polls and Latest News

Spain Election Polls: PP at 92% for Most Seats Despite SW Poll

Live market odds

1 venue

Spain General Election Winner

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Polymarket.

PSOEIn this story

18%

Polymarket5.56x18¢

Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? [Yes]

83%

Polymarket1.20x83¢

Vox

Polymarket83.33x1.2¢

Broad Front (FA) and Podemos: under 1% each

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Consensus prediction market price

Since the first article's chart, November 3 to today

Hover the chart for prices over time. Each dot under it is a story update; hover to preview it, click to jump to it.

Background

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026, and the market asks which party wins the most seats in the Congress of Deputies. The main contenders are Alberto Núñez Feijóo's PP and Pedro Sánchez's PSOE, with Vox third and a possible partner for the PP.

The contract resolves on seats, not vote share, so seat projections matter more than headline percentages. A party can lead in the polls and still finish behind on seats. A majority in Congress requires 176 seats, and whether PP and Vox together reach it shapes who forms a government. The market itself only asks which party finishes first in seats.

Public polls, newest first. Bases differ, so compare like with like.
Poll	Fieldwork	Base	PSOE	PP
SW Demoscopia/La Séptima	Nov. 10	All respondents	31.2%	28.3%
DYM/20minutos	Nov. 10	All respondents	27.3%	33.1%
El Periódico poll average	Nov. 10	Poll average	27.2%	30.7%

Nov. 11, 2026: PSOE's Chances in Spain's Election Rise to 16% as Polls Narrow

The PSOE's chances of winning the most seats in Spain's 29 November general election rose from 12% to 16% in the Spain General Election Winner market on Polymarket after polls published 8-11 November showed Pedro Sánchez's party closing on Alberto Núñez Feijóo's PP. One survey put the Socialists first. Most still show the PP ahead, and the poll average compiled by El Periódico has the PP at 30.7% and the PSOE at 27.2%.

PSOE's Odds of Winning Spain's 29 November Election Rise to 16%

In the Spain General Election Winner market, the PSOE traded at 16% on 11 November, up from 12% three days earlier, a gain of 4 percentage points. The price still makes the PSOE a clear underdog. The repricing matches the poll narrative: traders are crediting a shrinking gap, not a Socialist lead.

The PSOE's rise from 12% to 16% coincides with polls published between 8 and 11 November.

Polls Show PSOE Closing on the PP, but Most Still Have the PP Ahead

The strongest result for the Socialists came from SW Demoscopia for La Séptima on 10 November. It put the PSOE at 31.2% and the PP at 28.3%, which it projects as 129 seats to 113, according to El Plural. The outlet reported that the PP is losing ground to Vox. No other survey in the window shows a PSOE lead, so the result stands alone for now.

Other pollsters show a tighter race that still favors the PP:

Pollster / outlet	Date	PP	PSOE	Lead
SW Demoscopia/La Séptima	10 Nov	28.3%	31.2%	PSOE +2.9
Ateneo del Dato/elDiario.es	8-9 Nov	31.5%	28.6%	PP +2.9
40dB/El País	Nov (fieldwork and publication dates unconfirmed)	31.9%	29.9%	PP +2.0
DYM/20minutos	10 Nov	33.1%	27.3%	PP +5.8
El Periódico average	10 Nov	30.7%	27.2%	PP +3.5

DYM projects 135-139 seats for the PP and 104-108 for the PSOE, according to Democrata.

The El Periódico average puts the PP 3.5 points ahead, with the PSOE up six tenths of a point in a week. Because the contract resolves on seats, the constituency picture matters too. GAD3 for ABC has the PP leading in 31 of 52 constituencies. In that survey the PSOE leads outright in only two and ties in nine. France 24 also reported that the right holds its lead.

What Comes Next

The government has added extra Council of Ministers meetings on 13 and 20 November. PSOE and PP have also agreed to hold televised debates at the Academia de Televisión. The next test is whether polls taken after the 11 November general strike confirm SW Demoscopia's result or match DYM's wider PP margin.

Live pricing is on the Spain General Election Winner market page through the 29 November vote.

Earlier Updates

Nov. 9, 2026: Spain Election Polls Keep PP First as PSOE Recovers After Puente Exit

Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? [Yes]90% → 84%▼6

On November 9, 2026, a 40db survey showed Alberto Núñez Feijóo's PP at 31.9% against PSOE's 29.9%, while SocioMétrica had the PP finishing first in 93 of 100 simulations. Those polls came after Transport Minister Óscar Puente resigned on November 3 over the Urda train crash, and an Ateneo del Dato poll reported PSOE growth, with PP plus Vox still holding an absolute majority.

Nov. 6, 2026: Spain Election Polls: PP at 92% for Most Seats Despite SW Poll

Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? [Yes]86% → 92%▲6

On Nov 6, 2026, Spain's Sánchez resumed PSOE campaign events in Valencia after a pause following the Oct 28 Urda rail crash that killed 69 people. Most polls that day, including Celeste-Tel and the PolitPro aggregate, still put PP ahead, while SW Demoscopia/La Séptima showed PSOE narrowly leading. Transport Minister Óscar Puente had resigned on Nov 3, and PP launched its "most critical" campaign built on Feijóo's record.