Zendaya to Campaign for Best Actress for 'Dune: Part Three'

---

Zendaya's Best Actress Oscar Chances Jump to 25% After 'Dune: Part Three' Lead Campaign Report

Zendaya's chance of a Best Actress nomination rose from 15% to 25% on Kalshi's "Oscar nominees: Best Actress" market after Variety reported on Oct. 23, 2026 that she will campaign in lead for Chani in Denis Villeneuve's "Dune: Part Three." This is a campaign strategy, not a nomination. Zendaya has never been Oscar-nominated, and a nod would be her first.

The contract rose roughly 10 percentage points over three days and stood at 25% on Oct. 26. The film opens Dec. 18.

Live market odds

1 venue

Oscar nominees: Best Actress

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

ZendayaIn this story

30%

Kalshi3.23x31¢

Julianne Moore

98%

Kalshi1.01x99¢

Inde Navarrette

80%

Kalshi1.25x80¢

Olivia Wilde

76%

Kalshi1.30x77¢

New to Kalshi? Get a $55 trading bonus

Code PRED55. New users only. Eligibility restrictions and terms apply.

Claim offer

Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

The category choice breaks with her approach on the first two "Dune" films, which were campaigned in supporting. Variety also reports she will submit A24's "The Drama," opposite Robert Pattinson, in lead, giving her two potential Best Actress vehicles. Her role as Athena in Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" will go in supporting, where she would compete with castmate Anne Hathaway. Universal confirmed Hathaway's supporting campaign to Variety.

1D7D30D

---

What the Variety Report on Zendaya's Category Switch Does and Doesn't Establish

The report rests on unnamed sources. Warner Bros. and Zendaya's representatives declined to comment, according to Variety. Category placement is a studio and talent decision about where to push for votes. Academy members nominate on their own ballots and can place a performance in either category.

Outside forecasters have not followed the market. Gold Derby does not currently list Zendaya in either actress category, The Brief reports, citing IGN. Gold Derby does list her as a Golden Globe hopeful for "The Drama" and the final season of "Euphoria." Her awards record so far comes from television and comedy-drama work: two Emmys and a Golden Globe for "Euphoria," plus a 2025 Globe nomination for "Challengers."

The price jump coincides with the Variety report, and we could not establish any other sourced cause for the size of the move.

---

What Could Confirm or Reverse Zendaya's Best Actress Odds

The first signal is official confirmation. A Warner Bros. statement or for-your-consideration materials placing Chani in lead would replace sourced reporting with an on-record plan. The second signal is the forecasting consensus. If Gold Derby adds her to its Best Actress predictions for "Dune: Part Three" or "The Drama," the market's repricing would gain outside support.

Reversal risks run the other way. A shift back to supporting would undercut the move, as would a Dec. 18 release that fails to put Chani at the film's center. So would continued absence from forecaster lists as precursor awards approach. Traders can track the full field on the Oscar nominees: Best Actress market.

The decisive milestone is the Academy's nominations announcement, which comes after the awards-season campaign. The Kalshi market resolves Jan. 21, 2027. The 99th Oscars air March 14, 2027.