Jay Feely's AZ-01 Odds Rise to 21% Despite Poll Showing Shah Ahead

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Jay Feely's AZ-01 Polls: Shah Leads 48.7% to 43.2% as Feely's Odds Rise to 21%

Jay Feely's chance of winning Arizona's 1st Congressional District rose from 16% to 21% over three days in the AZ-01 House winner? market, even though the latest poll has Democrat Amish Shah ahead, 48.7% to 43.2%. RedBox Research released that survey on Oct. 25, and a super PAC sponsored it. Cook Political Report rates the open seat, vacated by David Schweikert's run for governor, Lean Democratic.

The market gained about 5 percentage points and stood at 21% on Oct. 26. Venue prices ranged from 18% on Polymarket to 22% on Kalshi and 24% on PredictIt. We could not establish what caused the move. On the available evidence, this is a modest repricing in a Lean D race, not a turnaround.

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Are There Polls for Jay Feely (R) in AZ-01?

Yes. The most recent poll is the RedBox Research survey. It interviewed 851 likely voters from Oct. 20 to 23 and has a margin of error of ±4.2 points. The pollster reports a 5.6-point Shah lead. It calculated that lead before rounding, which is why it differs from the 5.5 points you get by subtracting the rounded shares. The release itself labels the lead "within the margin of error."

Libertarian Monica Alponte drew 2.6%, and 2.3% of respondents were undecided. A Fight Worth Having, a super PAC registered with the FEC, sponsored the poll, and RedBox is that PAC's own polling unit. Readers should weigh that sponsorship.

The poll and the market measure different things:

• The poll measures stated vote preference among sampled voters during one week.
• The market's 21% is traders' implied probability that Feely wins on Nov. 3. It is not a vote share.
• Cook's Lean Democratic rating is a third measure: an analyst forecast. Inside Elections is slightly more cautious and rates the race Tilt Democratic.

You cannot convert a 5.5-point polling deficit into a 21% win chance. Registration data helps explain why traders keep Feely in the race despite trailing. Republicans hold 38% of registrations, Democrats 26%, and independents and others 35%, according to coverage from Axios and KJZZ.

Resolved Nov 6, 2026

AZ-01 House winner?

This market settled on November 6, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point

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What Moved Jay Feely's AZ-01 Odds, and What Is Still Unconfirmed

By timing, the Oct. 25 poll is the likeliest trigger. But a poll showing Shah ahead does not, on its face, favor Feely, so it cannot be shown to explain his gain. Research found no withdrawal, scandal, court ruling, or candidate change in the race over the past 72 hours. No verified volume data is available, so we cannot say whether trading was heavy or thin.

Several sourced factors were already public before the move:

• Outside money for Feely. POLITICO reported on Oct. 23 that GOP groups have spent more than $22 million to boost Feely. Trump is also backing his longtime friend personally.
• Spending totals. Midterm Mondays puts outside spending against Shah near $9.5 million, compared with about $7.9 million against Feely.
• Fundraising. Shah has outraised Feely $5 million to $3.4 million, per Cronkite News and KJZZ.
• Statewide mood. The Tucson.com report on a statewide "blue surge" adds to the environment, but it does not address AZ-01 specifically.

Two developments would change the picture: independent, non-sponsored polling or a shift in Cook's rating. Neither has surfaced. Until one does, Feely remains a clear underdog. Live pricing is available on the AZ-01 House winner market page.