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PicksSmart MoneyArbitragePromos

Live prediction market odds for 2026 Brazil Presidential Election. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Kalshi / Polymarket / Predict.fun

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2026 Brazil Presidential Election

2026-10-06

Best price · tap to trade

Flávio Bolsonaro56¢1.79xKalshiLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva44¢2.27xKalshiRenan Santos1¢100.00xKalshi
Compare all 20 outcomes across 3 venues

About This Market

Traders give Flávio Bolsonaro about a 56.7% chance. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva follows at 42.5%, Renan Santos follows at 0.6%, and Romeu Zema follows at 0.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Traders give Flávio Bolsonaro about a 56.7% chance. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva follows at 42.5%, Renan Santos follows at 0.6%, and Romeu Zema follows at 0.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2026 Brazil Presidential Election. This election will determine the country's leadership amid ongoing economic challenges and political polarization, making it a pivotal moment for Brazil's future direction.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Predict.funPredict.fun
Best price
FB
Flávio BolsonaroARB
57%
Kalshi56¢
Polymarket58¢
Predict.fun58¢
Kalshi1.79x56¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
55.5%55¢56¢44¢45¢
PolymarketPolymarket
57.9%58¢58¢42¢42¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
58.1%58¢58¢42¢42¢
LI
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
43%
Kalshi44¢
Polymarket42¢
Predict.fun42¢
Kalshi2.27x44¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
44.0%43¢44¢56¢57¢
PolymarketPolymarket
41.0%41¢42¢58¢59¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
41.6%41¢42¢58¢59¢
RS
Renan Santos
1%
Kalshi1¢
—
—
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
0.7%1¢1¢99¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
—0¢—100¢100¢
RZ
Romeu Zema
single venue
—
—
—
Kalshi500.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
—0¢—100¢100¢
CS
Camilo Santana
—
—
—
Polymarket1000.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarketPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro is a Brazilian senator representing Rio de Janeiro. He is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who endorsed Flávio's candidacy for the 2026 presidential election. Flávio is a leading candidate in the upcoming election, aiming to succeed his father in office.

About Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the current President of Brazil, serving his third term since January 2023. He previously held the presidency from 2003 to 2011, during which he implemented significant social welfare programs. His extensive political experience and leadership make him a central figure in the 2026 Brazil Presidential Election.

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will Trump talk to in JanuaryWONPre-event: 4%

About Ratinho Júnior

Carlos Massa Ratinho Júnior is the current governor of Paraná, serving his second consecutive term. He previously served as a state deputy and secretary of urban development in Paraná. He is a candidate in the 2026 Brazil presidential election.
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily fading Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Smart Money Consensus$20.4K
$20.4KNo
Smart Traders Split8
3Yes5No
KalshiBuy No at 57¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Flávio Bolsonaro
Yes$7.4K · 3 whales
No$4.8K · 6 whales
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
No$20.4K · 5 whales
Yes-$2.8K · 3 whales
Renan Santos
No$356 · 1 whale

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Smart Money Feed
Full Feed

Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $51.1K lifetime bet $580 on Yes at 58¢

16m ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $273K lifetime bet $572 on Yes at 58¢

1h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $51.1K lifetime bet $2.6K on Yes at 58¢

1h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $257K lifetime bet $519 on No at 59¢

1h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $448K lifetime sold $3K of Yes at 42¢

2h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Trade on Kalshi →

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
AP
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracledadosabertos.tse.jus.brConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.0%
Platforms3
Candidates20
Leader

Flávio Bolsonaro

56.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: 2026 Brazil Presidential Election

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
AP
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracledadosabertos.tse.jus.brConsensus of Sources
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Flávio Bolsonaro Hits 51% as Supreme Court Clash Rattles LulaPrediction markets flip Lula to underdog after a judiciary standoff and emergency fuel cuts; Datafolha still shows him leading the first round by five points.Sep 10, 20262026 Brazil Election Volume Hits 2.7x Baseline on Aug 15August 15 saw $354,689 traded across Polymarket and Kalshi, nearly triple the seven-day average. Lula holds 64%; Santos sits at 6%.Aug 16, 2026Corruption Tape Cuts Flávio Bolsonaro's 2026 Presidential Odds to 31%Leaked audio linking the senator to a jailed banker wiped 15 points off his election probability in 72 hours, erasing a third of his implied win probability.May 15, 2026Lula Holds at 41% as Haddad's São Paulo Gambit Reveals a Tighter 2026 RaceLula deploys his top ally to contest São Paulo while runoff polls show a dead heat with Flávio Bolsonaro. Markets price him below even odds.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the 2026 Brazil Presidential Election?

The election will shape Brazil's political landscape and influence its economic policies. Given the country's recent political turmoil, the outcome could have lasting effects on governance and public trust.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment about the election?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants, providing insights into perceived probabilities of various outcomes. Fluctuations in odds can indicate shifts in public sentiment and candidate viability as the election date approaches.

What factors could impact the odds leading up to the election?

Key factors include economic performance, public opinion polls, and major political events such as debates or scandals. These elements can significantly influence voter sentiment and, consequently, prediction market odds.

What does the 2026 Brazil Presidential Election prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest 2026 Brazil Presidential Election odds?

The latest available prices are Flávio Bolsonaro: 55.5¢ on Kalshi, 57.9¢ on Polymarket, 58.1¢ on Predict.fun; Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 44.0¢ on Kalshi, 41.0¢ on Polymarket, 41.6¢ on Predict.fun; Renan Santos: 0.7¢ on Kalshi, 0.4¢ on Polymarket, 0.3¢ on Predict.fun; Romeu Zema: 0.2¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Who will Trump talk to in January

Resolved

2026-01-31

WONLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Pre-event: 4%
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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