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Live prediction market odds for 2026 California Governor Election. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt and Predict.fun.

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2026 California Governor Election

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Xavier Becerra96¢1.04xPolymarket USSteve Hilton3¢33.33xKalshiTom Steyer0¢Polymarket
Compare all 28 outcomes across 5 venues

About This Market

Traders give Xavier Becerra about a 95.7% chance. Steve Hilton follows at 4.2%, Tom Steyer follows at 0.2%, and Alex Padilla follows at 0.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.0 percentage points.

Traders give Xavier Becerra about a 95.7% chance. Steve Hilton follows at 4.2%, Tom Steyer follows at 0.2%, and Alex Padilla follows at 0.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.0 percentage points.

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the 2026 California Governor Election. This election will determine the state's leadership and influence policy decisions on critical issues such as climate change, housing, and healthcare.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

5 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
PredictIt
Predict.fun
Best price
XB
Xavier Becerra
96%
Kalshi96¢
Polymarket US96¢
Polymarket96¢
PredictIt97¢
Predict.fun95¢
Polymarket US1.04x96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
96.3%96¢96¢4¢4¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
95.0%95¢96¢4¢5¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.9%96¢96¢4¢4¢
PredictItPredictIt
96.0%96¢97¢3¢4¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
95.0%95¢95¢5¢5¢
SH
Steve Hilton
4%
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket US5¢
Polymarket4¢
PredictIt4¢
Predict.fun4¢
Kalshi29.41x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.4%3¢3¢97¢97¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
5.0%4¢5¢95¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.3%4¢4¢96¢96¢
PredictItPredictIt
4.0%3¢4¢96¢97¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
4.3%4¢4¢96¢96¢
TS
Tom Steyer
single venue
—
—
—
—
—
Polymarket500.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
AP
Alex Padilla
single venue
—
—
—
PredictIt1¢
—
Polymarket1000.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PredictItPredictIt
—0¢1¢99¢100¢
AV
Antonio Villaraigosa
—
—
—
PredictIt1¢
Predict.fun1¢
Polymarket1000.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PredictItPredictIt
—0¢1¢99¢100¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictItPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Steve Hilton

Steve Hilton is a Republican candidate for the 2026 California gubernatorial election. He previously served as director of strategy for British Prime Minister David Cameron from 2010 to 2012. Hilton is running to succeed term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom and has launched his campaign with the slogan "Golden Again: Great Jobs, Great Homes, Great Kids."

About Katie Porter

Katie Porter is a candidate in the 2026 California gubernatorial election. She served as a U.S. Representative from California's 45th and 47th congressional districts from 2019 to 2025. Her tenure in Congress was marked by her role as deputy chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and her reputation for rigorous questioning during congressional hearings.

About Eric Swalwell

Eric Swalwell is a Democratic U.S. Representative from California's 14th congressional district. He previously served as a prosecutor and Dublin City Council member. He is currently running for governor of California in the 2026 election.

About Matt Mahan

Matt Mahan is the Democratic Mayor of San Jose, California. He previously served on the San Jose City Council from 2021 to 2023. He is running for governor in the 2026 California gubernatorial election.

About Tom Steyer

Tom Steyer is a billionaire businessman and environmental activist running for California governor in 2026. He previously ran for president in 2020 and founded NextGen America, a nonprofit supporting progressive causes. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is a prominent contender in the upcoming gubernatorial election.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ABCAxiosCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCPoliticoReutersSemaforthe Associated PressThe InformationThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread5.0%
Platforms5
Candidates28
Leader

Xavier Becerra

95.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: 2026 California Governor Election

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Rick Caruso is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
ABCAxiosCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCPoliticoReutersSemaforthe Associated PressThe InformationThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

If Steve Hilton wins the 2026 California Governor Election this market will settle to Yes. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities.

Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the 2026 California Governor Election scheduled?

The election is set for November 3, 2026. Voters will decide who will lead California for the next term.

What factors could influence the outcome of the election?

Key issues such as economic recovery, public safety, and environmental policies are likely to shape voter preferences. Additionally, candidate popularity and campaign strategies will play a significant role.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment about the election?

Prediction markets aggregate bets on various outcomes, providing insights into public expectations and candidate viability. Shifts in odds can indicate changing perceptions as the election date approaches.

What does the 2026 California Governor Election prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest 2026 California Governor Election odds?

The latest available prices are Xavier Becerra: 96.3¢ on Kalshi, 95.9¢ on Polymarket, 96.0¢ on PredictIt, 95.0¢ on Polymarket US, 95.0¢ on Predict.fun; Steve Hilton: 3.4¢ on Kalshi, 4.3¢ on Polymarket, 4.0¢ on PredictIt, 5.0¢ on Polymarket US, 4.3¢ on Predict.fun; Tom Steyer: 0.2¢ on Polymarket; Alex Padilla: 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 1.0¢ on PredictIt. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

California Governor Race Volume Triples While Hilton Holds at 5%$127K traded on Aug 19, nearly 4x the weekly baseline. Becerra holds at 94% as the market enters its 30th day.Aug 20, 2026Becerra at 65% to Win California Governor After Near-Loss in PrimaryMarkets shed 23 points in 72 hours after Becerra cleared the primary by 0.3 points. Steyer's endorsement and 21% vote share could reset the race.Jun 10, 2026Steyer at 11%: $195M Fails to Secure CA Governor Primary SlotSteyer trails Becerra by 5.4 points with 58% counted; Kalshi prices him at 13%, PredictIt at 9%, implying a 1-in-9 chance of advancing.Jun 3, 2026Becerra Hits 39% in CA Governor Market, but His 10-Point Surge Is Borrowed TimeXavier Becerra's jump from 29% to 39% maps directly onto Swalwell's collapse, not any policy win or fundraising milestone. The market is pricing a vacuum.May 2, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?LOSTPre-event: 2%

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?LOSTPre-event: 0%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

Resolved

2026-06-02

LOSTMatt Mahan
Pre-event: 3%

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?LOSTPre-event: 3%
No price history available