2026: Trump's bad year?
Live prediction market odds for 2026: Trump's bad year?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
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Traders put the chance of a Yes outcome at about 1.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: - "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL - "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. Additional specifications: - POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period - CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House on Feb 1, 2027 - NBERRECSS - requires two consecutive quarters in which the the most recent estimates of seasonally adjusted annualized percent changes of quarterly US real GDP are negative
Potential factors include shifts in voter sentiment, legislative setbacks, and the performance of the Republican Party in upcoming elections. Economic conditions and public perception of Trump's policies may also play significant roles.
Odds in prediction markets are influenced by the collective opinions of traders, reflecting their expectations based on current events and historical data. Market movements can occur rapidly in response to news or changes in public opinion.
The year 2026 is critical as it may set the stage for the 2028 presidential election and influence Trump's standing within the Republican Party. Outcomes in 2026 could impact his viability as a candidate moving forward.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Yes: 1.8¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
