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Live prediction market odds for AL-02 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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AL-02 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Rhett Marques (R)76¢1.32xKalshiShomari Figures (D)25¢4.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Rhett Marques (R) about a 75.8% chance. Shomari Figures (D) follows at 25.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Traders give Rhett Marques (R) about a 75.8% chance. Shomari Figures (D) follows at 25.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AL-02 House race in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in the House of Representatives, impacting legislative agendas and party strategies.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
RM
Rhett Marques (R)
76%
Kalshi76¢
Polymarket US77¢
Polymarket76¢
Kalshi1.32x76¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
76.0%75¢76¢24¢25¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
76.5%76¢77¢23¢24¢
PolymarketPolymarket
75.0%74¢76¢24¢26¢
SF
Shomari Figures (D)
25%
Kalshi25¢
—
Polymarket26¢
Kalshi4.00x25¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
25.0%24¢25¢75¢76¢
PolymarketPolymarket
25.5%25¢26¢74¢75¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Rhett Marques (R)

Rhett Marques is a Republican member of the Alabama House of Representatives, representing District 91 since November 7, 2018. Before his political career, he owned and managed Goodson Tire & Auto in Enterprise, Alabama. He is recognized for his pro-business stance and commitment to Alabama's manufacturing sector.

About Shomari Figures (D)

Shomari Figures is the U.S. Representative for Alabama's 2nd congressional district, serving since January 3, 2025. Before his election, he was Deputy Chief of Staff and Counselor to Attorney General Merrick Garland at the Department of Justice. His extensive experience in federal service, including roles in the Obama and Biden administrations, underscores his qualifications for this position.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Rhett Marques (R)

75.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: AL-02 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for AL-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the AL-02 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the AL-02 House winner?

Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data leading up to the election. Additionally, national political trends and local issues can sway voter sentiment.

When is the AL-02 House election taking place?

The AL-02 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date aligns with the general election day for federal offices.

How do prediction markets work for the AL-02 House race?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of the race's outcome. Prices reflect the collective sentiment of traders regarding the likelihood of each candidate winning.

What does the AL-02 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest AL-02 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Rhett Marques (R): 76.0¢ on Kalshi, 75.0¢ on Polymarket, 76.5¢ on Polymarket US; Shomari Figures (D): 25.0¢ on Kalshi, 25.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

GOP's AL-02 Odds Collapse 34 Points to 16% as D+5 District Math Takes HoldGOP dropped from 51% to 16% in AL-02 as markets absorbed the D+5 PVI. Republicans still lack a primary nominee with eight days to go.May 11, 2026