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Live prediction market odds for AL-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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AL-04 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Robert Aderholt (R)99¢1.01xKalshiAmanda Pusczek (D)2¢50.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Robert Aderholt (R) about a 97.8% chance. Amanda Pusczek (D) follows at 1.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.3 percentage points.

Traders give Robert Aderholt (R) about a 97.8% chance. Amanda Pusczek (D) follows at 1.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.3 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AL-04 House race set for November 3, 2026. This contest will be pivotal in determining party control in the House of Representatives, influencing legislative agendas and national policies.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
RA
Robert Aderholt (R)
98%
Kalshi99¢
Polymarket US99¢
Polymarket100¢
Kalshi1.01x99¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
96.7%95¢99¢1¢6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
98.5%98¢99¢1¢2¢
PolymarketPolymarket
98.1%96¢100¢0¢4¢
AP
Amanda Pusczek (D)
1%
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket US2¢
Polymarket1¢
Polymarket US50.00x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.8%1¢3¢97¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
1.0%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Robert Aderholt (R)

Robert B. Aderholt is the U.S. Representative for Alabama's 4th congressional district, serving since 1997. He chairs the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies. Aderholt's extensive tenure and leadership in appropriations underscore his influence in shaping federal funding decisions.

About Amanda Pusczek (D)

Amanda Pusczek is a Democratic candidate for Alabama's 4th congressional district in the 2026 elections. She has raised over $15,000 for her campaign as of June 30, 2026. Pusczek's candidacy is significant due to her active engagement in the political process and her efforts to represent her community.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.3%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Robert Aderholt (R)

97.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: AL-04 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for AL-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 election for the AL-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the AL-04 House race odds?

Polling data, candidate visibility, and party support are key factors affecting the odds. Additionally, local issues and national political trends can sway voter sentiment.

How does the AL-04 House race impact national politics?

The outcome could shift the balance of power in the House of Representatives. A change in control may lead to significant changes in legislative priorities and governance.

When will the AL-04 House winner be determined?

Voters will cast their ballots on November 3, 2026. Results will be tallied shortly after polls close, with official announcements expected that evening.

What does the AL-04 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest AL-04 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Robert Aderholt (R): 96.7¢ on Kalshi, 98.1¢ on Polymarket, 98.5¢ on Polymarket US; Amanda Pusczek (D): 2.8¢ on Kalshi, 0.5¢ on Polymarket, 1.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds