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Live prediction market odds for Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi.

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Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

2026-08-18

About This Market

Alaska Governor primary: who will advance: current odds are unavailable. Compare prices from Kalshi.

Alaska Governor primary: who will advance: current odds are unavailable. Compare prices from Kalshi.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Alaska Governor primary to determine which candidates will advance. This primary is crucial as it sets the stage for the general election, impacting party dynamics and voter turnout in the state.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

1 platform
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
BW
Bill Walker
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
JK
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
99.9%0¢100¢0¢100¢
LM
Lesil McGuire
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
KalshiKalshi

Candidate Spotlight

About Bill Walker

Bill Walker is an independent candidate for the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. He served as Alaska's governor from 2014 to 2018. Walker's extensive political experience and leadership in Alaska's executive branch make him a significant contender in the upcoming primary.

About Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is a former member of the Alaska House of Representatives, serving from 2013 to 2023. He is currently running for governor of Alaska, aiming to address the state's challenges through bipartisan collaboration. His extensive legislative experience and commitment to public service make him a significant contender in the gubernatorial race.

About Lesil McGuire

Lesil McGuire is a former Republican member of the Alaska State Senate, serving from 2007 to 2017. She was the first woman president of the Pacific NorthWest Economic Region (PNWER) and established the Arctic Caucus. Her leadership in energy and Arctic policy, as well as women's rights, underscores her significant influence in Alaskan politics.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.0%
Platforms1
Candidates3
Leader

Bill Walker

0.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Alaska Governor primary: who will advance?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Alaska Governor primary?

The Alaska Governor primary determines which candidates will represent their parties in the general election. This can significantly influence the political landscape and voter engagement in the state.

How do prediction markets work for this primary?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment about which candidates are likely to advance.

What factors could influence the odds in this primary?

Factors such as candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout in early polls can impact the odds. Additionally, endorsements and political events leading up to the primary may sway public opinion.

What does the Alaska Governor primary: who will advance prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Alaska Governor primary: who will advance odds?

The latest available prices are Bill Walker: 1.0¢ on Kalshi; Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 99.9¢ on Kalshi; Lesil McGuire: 1.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Kreiss-Tomkins at 79% to Advance in Alaska Governor PrimaryThe Sitka Democrat leads a 17-candidate field with $1.8M raised and a fisheries endorsement, up 10 points in three days on Kalshi and Polymarket.Aug 6, 2026JKT Hits 74% in Alaska Governor Primary After $1.8M Fundraising HaulKreiss-Tomkins entered as the 16th candidate in February; he has since earned the Alaska Longline Fishermen's Association endorsement and leads all primary contenders on Kalshi.Aug 4, 2026Walker at 31%: Can He Still Reach Alaska's Top-Four Primary Cutoff?Bettors reversed Walker's rally with no new catalyst. Kalshi prices him at 26%, Polymarket at 36%, as fragmentation math stays unchanged.Jul 14, 2026Bill Walker Hits 44% to Advance in Alaska Primary Despite 8% PollingKalshi prices Walker at 32%, Polymarket at 55%. With 17 candidates splitting the vote, the fourth-place cutoff may land in the high single digits.Jul 11, 2026