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Live prediction market odds for Alaska House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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Alaska House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Republican Party86¢1.16xKalshiDemocratic Party4¢25.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Republican Party about a 84.5% chance. Democratic Party follows at 3.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.3 percentage points.

Traders give Republican Party about a 84.5% chance. Democratic Party follows at 3.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.3 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the Alaska House election scheduled for November 3, 2026. This race is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the state.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
RP
Republican Party
85%
Kalshi86¢
Polymarket US86¢
Polymarket84¢
Kalshi1.16x86¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
84.5%83¢86¢14¢17¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
85.0%85¢86¢14¢15¢
PolymarketPolymarket
84.0%83¢84¢16¢17¢
DP
Democratic Party
4%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket US5¢
Polymarket4¢
Kalshi23.26x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.3%2¢4¢96¢98¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
3.0%3¢5¢95¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.8%4¢4¢96¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

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¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.3%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Republican Party

84.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Alaska House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for AK-AL for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Republican Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the AK-AL congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Alaska House winner?

Factors include candidate popularity, party affiliation, and recent polling data. Additionally, local issues and national political trends can sway voter preferences.

How does the Alaska House election impact national politics?

The outcome can affect the overall composition of Congress, potentially shifting control between parties. This election also serves as a bellwether for voter attitudes in the region.

When will the Alaska House election take place?

The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date is significant as it coincides with other key elections across the country.

What does the Alaska House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Alaska House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Republican Party: 84.5¢ on Kalshi, 84.0¢ on Polymarket, 85.0¢ on Polymarket US; Democratic Party: 4.3¢ on Kalshi, 3.8¢ on Polymarket, 3.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Begich's 46% Primary Win Pushes GOP to 82% in Alaska House RaceNick Begich III's dominant primary finish and a collapsed Democratic field drove the GOP's implied probability up 10 points in three days. No credible Democrat survived to the general.Aug 24, 2026Begich Primary Win and Schultz Exit Push Republican Odds to 82%Republican implied probability rose 10 points in three days. Begich led with 48% in the primary while Schultz dropped out and endorsed independent Bill Hill.Aug 22, 2026Republican Chances in Alaska House Race Jump to 82% After PrimaryAlaska's August 18 primary crystallized the field, pushing Republican implied probability up 10 points in three days. Kalshi sits at 80%, Polymarket at 85%.Aug 20, 2026