Live prediction market odds for AR-03 House winner?. Compare prices across .
This event is archived while we await a venue decision. The chart below shows historical odds.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AR-03 House election set for November 3, 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AR-03 House election set for November 3, 2026. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, especially in light of shifting voter demographics and party strategies.
Odds for questions with unconfirmed results.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Steve Womack (R) | Yes |
Other | No result |
Robb Ryerse (D) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for AR-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the AR-03 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and historical voting patterns also play a significant role in shaping market expectations.
Prediction markets aggregate the views of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of the election outcome. As new information emerges, such as debates or endorsements, prices adjust to reflect changing public sentiment.
The outcome of this election could impact legislative priorities and party control in Congress. Given the competitive nature of the district, it serves as a barometer for broader national trends in voter behavior.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
