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Live prediction market odds for AR-03 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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AR-03 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Steve Womack (R)95¢1.05xPolymarket USRobb Ryerse (D)7¢14.29xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Steve Womack (R) about a 94.0% chance. Robb Ryerse (D) follows at 5.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.4 percentage points.

Traders give Steve Womack (R) about a 94.0% chance. Robb Ryerse (D) follows at 5.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.4 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AR-03 House election set for November 3, 2026. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, especially in light of shifting voter demographics and party strategies.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
SW
Steve Womack (R)
94%
Kalshi97¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
93.0%93¢97¢3¢7¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.0%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.0%94¢96¢4¢6¢
RR
Robb Ryerse (D)
6%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket5¢
Polymarket US14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
6.9%2¢7¢93¢98¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.5%4¢5¢95¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Steve Womack (R)

Steve Womack is the U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 3rd Congressional District, serving since 2011. He previously served as Mayor of Rogers, Arkansas, from 1999 to 2010. Womack is a senior member of the House Appropriations Committee, chairing the Transportation, Housing and Urban Development Subcommittee.

About Robb Ryerse (D)

Robb Ryerse is the Executive Director of Vortex PAC and the Director of Development at New Beginnings NWA. He previously served as the Executive Director of Brand New Congress from 2019 to 2021. Ryerse has a background in political strategy and nonprofit development, with experience in media consulting and sales.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.4%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Steve Womack (R)

94.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: AR-03 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for AR-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the AR-03 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the AR-03 House winner?

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and historical voting patterns also play a significant role in shaping market expectations.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment for the AR-03 House race?

Prediction markets aggregate the views of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of the election outcome. As new information emerges, such as debates or endorsements, prices adjust to reflect changing public sentiment.

Why is the AR-03 House election significant?

The outcome of this election could impact legislative priorities and party control in Congress. Given the competitive nature of the district, it serves as a barometer for broader national trends in voter behavior.

What does the AR-03 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest AR-03 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Steve Womack (R): 93.0¢ on Kalshi, 95.0¢ on Polymarket, 94.0¢ on Polymarket US; Robb Ryerse (D): 6.9¢ on Kalshi, 4.5¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Steve Womack Hits 96% in AR-03 as Challenger Raises Just $120KWomack's re-election probability jumped 8 points in three days. His Democratic challenger has raised $120K against a $1.9M war chest in an R+15 district.Sep 27, 2026
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Trader up $131K lifetime bet $1.6K on No at 95¢

2d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the AR-03 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →