Live prediction market odds for AR-04 House winner?. Compare prices across .
This market resolved on Nov 4, 2026. Bruce Westerman (R) was the officially declared outcome.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AR-04 House race.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AR-04 House race. This market resolves based on the official election results on November 4, 2026, with odds fluctuating due to candidate announcements and campaign activities leading up to the election.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Bruce Westerman (R)WINNER | Yes |
James Russell (D) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for AR-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the AR-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
The market resolves on November 4, 2026, coinciding with the general election date. Official election results will determine the winner.
Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking this event. They provide real-time odds based on market sentiment.
Odds are influenced by candidate announcements, campaign strategies, and polling data leading up to the election. Changes in public opinion or major news events can also impact the market.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
