Argentina Presidential Election First Round Winner
Live prediction market odds for Argentina Presidential Election First Round Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Compare all 18 outcomes across 2 venuesTraders give Javier Milei about a 61.0% chance. Axel Kicillof follows at 19.8%, Sergio Massa follows at 5.6%, and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner follows at 5.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 7.0 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Javier Milei wins the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. For elections with runoffs or multiple rounds: if the market does not specify a round, the winner is the ultimate victor of the election. If the market designates a specific round, the winner is the candidate elected in that round or, if the election is not decided in that round, the candidate receiving a plurality of votes in that round, in each case regardless of whether that round is followed by any further round or runoff. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.
PolymarketA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Argentine government, specifically the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
The winner is determined by which candidate receives the most votes in the first round of the Argentina presidential election. This outcome is based on official election results.
Polling data impacts market odds as traders react to shifts in public support for candidates. Significant changes in polls can lead to rapid adjustments in the odds.
Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms tracking the first round winner of the Argentina presidential election. They provide real-time odds based on market sentiment and developments.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Javier Milei: 57.5¢ on Kalshi, 64.5¢ on Polymarket; Axel Kicillof: 20.0¢ on Kalshi, 19.5¢ on Polymarket; Sergio Massa: 6.5¢ on Kalshi, 4.8¢ on Polymarket; Cristina Fernández de Kirchner: 5.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
