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Live prediction market odds for Arkansas Senate winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / PredictIt

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Arkansas Senate winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Tom Cotton (R)93¢1.08xPolymarket USHallie Shoffner (D)8¢12.50xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Tom Cotton (R) about a 93.2% chance. Hallie Shoffner (D) follows at 6.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Traders give Tom Cotton (R) about a 93.2% chance. Hallie Shoffner (D) follows at 6.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Arkansas Senate winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in the Senate, impacting legislative priorities and national politics.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
PredictIt
Best price
TC
Tom Cotton (R)
93%
Kalshi93¢
Polymarket US93¢
Polymarket95¢
PredictIt93¢
Polymarket US1.08x93¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
93.0%93¢93¢7¢7¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
92.0%92¢93¢7¢8¢
PolymarketPolymarket
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PredictItPredictIt
92.0%92¢93¢7¢8¢
HS
Hallie Shoffner (D)ARB
7%
Kalshi8¢
Polymarket US8¢
Polymarket6¢
PredictIt9¢
Kalshi13.16x8¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.2%7¢8¢92¢93¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
7.0%7¢8¢92¢93¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.9%5¢6¢94¢95¢
PredictItPredictIt
8.0%8¢9¢91¢92¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictIt

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Tom Cotton (R)

Tom Cotton is the Republican U.S. Senator from Arkansas, serving since 2015. He previously represented Arkansas's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2013 to 2015. As a U.S. Army veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, he is known for his hawkish foreign policy views and conservative stance on domestic issues.

About Hallie Shoffner (D)

Hallie Shoffner is a sixth-generation farmer and small-business owner from Newport, Arkansas, running for the U.S. Senate as the Democratic nominee. She previously operated her family's farm, managing operations and finances, before closing it to protect her parents' land and retirement. Shoffner holds a degree from Vanderbilt University and a Master of Public Service from the Clinton School, with a focus on conservation, sustainable farming, and regional food production.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
United States Congress
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.5%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

Tom Cotton (R)

93.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Arkansas Senate winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
United States Congress
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for US Senator from Arkansas. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Arkansas Senate race?

Polling data, candidate fundraising, and public sentiment play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, national political trends and major events can sway voter opinions.

How do prediction markets work for political events?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs of traders about the likelihood of various candidates winning.

When is the Arkansas Senate election scheduled?

The Arkansas Senate election is set for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election day, when multiple federal and state offices are contested.

What does the Arkansas Senate winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Arkansas Senate winner odds?

The latest available prices are Tom Cotton (R): 93.0¢ on Kalshi, 94.5¢ on Polymarket, 92.0¢ on PredictIt, 92.0¢ on Polymarket US; Hallie Shoffner (D): 7.2¢ on Kalshi, 5.9¢ on Polymarket, 8.0¢ on PredictIt, 7.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Hallie Shoffner Jumps to 51% in Arkansas Senate Race After 46-Point SurgeNo endorsement, filing, or polling release accompanied the 72-hour move. Kalshi shows 6%; Polymarket shows 96%.Jun 27, 2026Shoffner at 51% in Arkansas Senate Market; Cotton Leads by 22 PointsPolymarket prices her at 96% while Kalshi holds her at 6%, a 90-point platform spread with no news catalyst in the past 72 hours.Jun 25, 2026

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