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Live prediction market odds for AZ-03 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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AZ-03 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Yassamin Ansari (D)96¢1.04xPolymarket USRepublican Party3¢33.33xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Yassamin Ansari (D) about a 97.3% chance. Republican Party follows at 1.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.8 percentage points.

Traders give Yassamin Ansari (D) about a 97.3% chance. Republican Party follows at 1.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.8 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AZ-03 House race scheduled for November 3, 2026. This election is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the state.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
YA
Yassamin Ansari (D)ARB
97%
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket US96¢
Polymarket98¢
Polymarket US1.04x96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
98.8%98¢100¢0¢2¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
95.0%95¢96¢4¢5¢
PolymarketPolymarket
98.2%98¢98¢2¢2¢
RP
Republican PartyARB
2%
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket US3¢
Polymarket1¢
Polymarket US33.33x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.5%0¢3¢97¢100¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
2.0%2¢3¢97¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.5%0¢1¢100¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Yassamin Ansari (D)

Yassamin Ansari is the U.S. Representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district, serving since January 2025. She previously served as Vice Mayor of Phoenix and was the youngest woman ever elected to the Phoenix City Council. Ansari is recognized for her advocacy in climate action and sustainable energy.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.8%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Yassamin Ansari (D)

97.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: AZ-03 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for AZ-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the AZ-03 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds in the AZ-03 House race?

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements can also significantly sway market predictions.

How do prediction markets work for elections like AZ-03?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom and sentiment of traders regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning.

Why is the AZ-03 House race considered important?

The AZ-03 House race is pivotal as it may determine which party gains or maintains control in the House of Representatives. Additionally, it serves as a barometer for broader political trends leading into the 2026 elections.

What does the AZ-03 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest AZ-03 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Yassamin Ansari (D): 98.8¢ on Kalshi, 98.2¢ on Polymarket, 95.0¢ on Polymarket US; Republican Party: 2.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.5¢ on Polymarket, 2.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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