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Live prediction market odds for AZ-06 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / PredictIt

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AZ-06 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

JoAnna Mendoza (D)82¢1.22xPolymarket USJuan Ciscomani (R)17¢5.88xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give JoAnna Mendoza (D) about a 82.8% chance. Juan Ciscomani (R) follows at 17.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 10.0 percentage points.

Traders give JoAnna Mendoza (D) about a 82.8% chance. Juan Ciscomani (R) follows at 17.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 10.0 percentage points.

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the AZ-06 House winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, with implications for key policy decisions and party strategies.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
PredictIt
Best price
JM
JoAnna Mendoza (D)
83%
Kalshi84¢
Polymarket US82¢
Polymarket83¢
PredictIt89¢
Polymarket US1.22x82¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
84.0%82¢84¢16¢18¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
82.0%81¢82¢18¢19¢
PolymarketPolymarket
82.5%82¢83¢17¢18¢
PredictItPredictIt
89.0%77¢89¢11¢23¢
JC
Juan Ciscomani (R)ARB
18%
Kalshi17¢
Polymarket US20¢
Polymarket18¢
PredictIt26¢
Kalshi5.88x17¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
16.0%15¢17¢83¢85¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
20.0%19¢20¢80¢81¢
PolymarketPolymarket
17.0%17¢18¢82¢83¢
PredictItPredictIt
26.0%12¢26¢74¢88¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictIt

Candidate Spotlight

About JoAnna Mendoza (D)

JoAnna Mendoza is a retired U.S. Marine Corps Gunnery Sergeant and a candidate for Arizona's 6th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives. She served over 20 years in the military, including deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, and held leadership roles as a Drill Instructor and senior enlisted leader. Mendoza is committed to advocating for working families, veterans, and rural communities in Southern Arizona.

About Juan Ciscomani (R)

Juan Ciscomani is the U.S. Representative for Arizona's 6th Congressional District, serving since January 3, 2023. Before his election, he was a senior adviser to Governor Doug Ducey and vice chair of the Arizona-Mexico Commission. He is recognized for his bipartisan approach and effective representation in Congress.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread10.0%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

JoAnna Mendoza (D)

82.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: AZ-06 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for AZ-6 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the AZ-06 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the AZ-06 House race?

Polling data, candidate fundraising, and local issues significantly impact the odds. Additionally, national political trends and party support can sway voter sentiment.

When is the AZ-06 House election scheduled?

The AZ-06 House election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election date for federal offices.

How do prediction markets determine the likelihood of outcomes?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and can change rapidly with new information.

What does the AZ-06 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest AZ-06 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are JoAnna Mendoza (D): 84.0¢ on Kalshi, 82.5¢ on Polymarket, 89.0¢ on PredictIt, 82.0¢ on Polymarket US; Juan Ciscomani (R): 16.0¢ on Kalshi, 17.0¢ on Polymarket, 26.0¢ on PredictIt, 20.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

CLF Attack Ad on Mendoza Pushes Democratic AZ-06 Odds to 86%The GOP super PAC's named ad buy signals internal alarm; Mendoza also leads the only public poll 47%-45%.Sep 16, 2026Ciscomani Priced at 26% to Hold AZ-06 Despite Primary WinMendoza leads 47%-45% in an HMP poll; markets price Ciscomani as a 3-to-1 underdog with $2.3M raised against him in Q1 alone.Jul 22, 2026Republican Party at 24% to Hold AZ-06 as Democratic Primary NearsCiscomani has never cleared 51% in two wins. Markets give him roughly a 1-in-4 chance of holding AZ-06 as Democrats consolidate around a single challenger.Jul 20, 2026Who Wins AZ-06? Democrats Slide 9 Points With No News CatalystDemocratic odds in AZ-06 fell from 88% to 79% in three days. Polymarket prices the seat at just 60%, far below Kalshi's 84%.Jun 29, 2026