Brazil presidential election: first round winner?
Live prediction market odds for Brazil presidential election: first round winner?. Compare prices across .
Archived, venue decision pending Listed Updated
This event is archived while we await a venue decision. The chart below shows historical odds.
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the first round winner of the Brazil presidential election held on October 4, 2026.
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the first round winner of the Brazil presidential election held on October 4, 2026. The outcome will influence Brazil's political direction and governance, impacting both domestic policies and international relations in the region.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Flávio Bolsonaro | No result |
Luiz Inácio Lula | No result |
Fernando Haddad | No |
Renan Santos | No |
Romeu Zema | No |
Ronaldo Caiado | No |
Tarcísio de Freitas | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion.
KalshiIf Flávio Bolsonaro wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
OpinionA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polling data, candidate popularity, and recent political events play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, economic conditions and public sentiment can sway voter preferences leading up to the election.
In Brazil, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes in the first round, a runoff is held between the top two candidates. This system ensures that the elected president has a majority support.
The election will determine Brazil's leadership and set the course for economic policies, social reforms, and environmental initiatives. The outcome will also affect Brazil's role on the global stage, particularly in trade and diplomacy.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
Prediction Market Track Record
Prediction Market Track Record
Prediction Market Track Record
