Live prediction market odds for CA-01 House winner?. Compare prices across .
This event is archived while we await a venue decision. The chart below shows historical odds.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-01 House race set for November 3, 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-01 House race set for November 3, 2026. This election is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the region.
Odds for questions with unconfirmed results.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Mike McGuire (D) | Yes |
Other | No result |
James Gallagher (R) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for CA-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Republican Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-01 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues affecting voters. Polling data and endorsements also play a significant role in shaping market perceptions.
The outcome could shift the majority in the House of Representatives, affecting legislative priorities and governance. It also serves as a barometer for broader political trends leading into the next election cycle.
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election, where multiple federal and state offices will be contested.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
