CA-04 primary advancers? | Historical Odds

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CA-04 primary advancers?

Final Closing Odds

Odds for questions with unconfirmed results.

Question	Result
Eric Jones	No result
Heath Fulkerson	No result
John Wesley Tyler	No result
Laurie MacKenzie	No result
Mandy Ghusar	No result
Mike Thompson	No result
Sharon Brown	No result
Trevor Merrell	No result

Candidate Spotlight

About Eric Jones

Eric Jones is a Democratic candidate for California's 4th Congressional District in the 2026 elections. He is a business leader and philanthropist who has created thousands of jobs in healthcare and education companies in California. His campaign focuses on affordability, accountability, and restoring the American Dream for working families.

About Heath Fulkerson

Heath Fulkerson is a Republican candidate for California's 4th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House elections. He has previously run for office in California's 7th congressional district. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is competing in the upcoming primary for CA-04.

About John Wesley Tyler

John Wesley Tyler is an independent candidate for California's 4th Congressional District in the 2026 elections. He is a school teacher and has launched a campaign to challenge incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson. Tyler is relevant to this prediction market as a challenger aiming to advance in the upcoming primary election.

About Laurie MacKenzie

Laurie MacKenzie is a Republican candidate for California's 4th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House elections. She has filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission, reporting total receipts of $7,000 and disbursements of $2,780 as of December 31, 2025. Her candidacy is relevant to the CA-04 primary as she seeks to challenge incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson.

About Mandy Ghusar

Mandy Ghusar is a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in California's 4th congressional district, running under the Peace and Freedom Party. She has filed the necessary paperwork to run in the 2026 election. Her candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as she is one of the contenders in the upcoming primary election.

About Mike Thompson

Mike Thompson is the current U.S. Representative for California's 4th Congressional District, serving on the House Committee on Ways and Means. He was re-elected in 2024, securing 66.5% of the vote. His extensive experience and leadership in the district make him a key figure in the upcoming primary.

About Sharon Brown

Sharon Brown is a Republican candidate for California's 4th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. She has filed the necessary paperwork to run for this seat. Her candidacy is relevant to the prediction market concerning potential primary advancers in the CA-04 race.

About Trevor Merrell

Trevor Merrell is a Democratic candidate for California's 4th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. He is a Marine Corps veteran and a case manager for adults with disabilities. Merrell is challenging incumbent Mike Thompson in the upcoming primary.

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Sharon Brown advances in the 2026 CA-04 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles

Attorney General of the United States the Federal Election Commission

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oraclesos.ca.govConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for CA-04 primary advancers?

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and campaign funding are key factors that impact the odds. Additionally, public debates and voter engagement can shift perceptions and influence market predictions.

How do prediction markets work for elections like CA-04?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about which candidates will advance in the primary.

What is the significance of the CA-04 primary?

The CA-04 primary is crucial as it determines which candidates will represent their party in the general election. Outcomes can affect party dynamics and strategies leading up to the election.

What does the CA-04 primary advancers prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available CA-04 primary advancers odds?

No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.