Live prediction market odds for CA-05 House winner?. Compare prices across .
This market resolved on Nov 4, 2026. Tom McClintock (R) was the officially declared outcome.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-05 House election held on November 3, 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-05 House election held on November 3, 2026. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, with implications for future legislation and party strategies.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Tom McClintock (R)WINNER | Yes |
Michael Masuda (D) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for CA-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-05 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
Key factors include voter turnout, candidate popularity, and local issues that resonate with constituents. Additionally, national trends and party support can sway the election results.
Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, providing insights into perceived probabilities of various outcomes. Fluctuations in odds can indicate changing public sentiment and campaign dynamics.
Winning the CA-05 seat could impact the overall majority in the House of Representatives. This election may also set the stage for future political strategies and influence legislative priorities.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
