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Live prediction market odds for CA-06 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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CA-06 primary: Who will advance?

2026-06-02

Best price · tap to trade

Richard Pan86¢1.16xKalshiKevin Kiley98¢1.02xKalshiLauren Babb Tomlinson15¢6.67xKalshi
Compare all 7 outcomes across 3 venues

About This Market

Traders give Richard Pan about a 63.8% chance. Kevin Kiley follows at 51.0%, Lauren Babb Tomlinson follows at 49.5%, and Martha Guerrero follows at 49.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 94.9 percentage points.

Traders give Richard Pan about a 63.8% chance. Kevin Kiley follows at 51.0%, Lauren Babb Tomlinson follows at 49.5%, and Martha Guerrero follows at 49.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 94.9 percentage points.

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the CA-06 primary to determine which candidates will advance. This primary is crucial as it shapes the electoral landscape and influences party dynamics ahead of the general election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
PredictItPredictIt
Best price
RP
Richard PanARB
64%
Kalshi86¢
Polymarket64¢
—
Kalshi1.16x86¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
84.0%80¢86¢14¢20¢
PolymarketPolymarket
43.5%23¢64¢36¢77¢
KK
Kevin KileyARB
51%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket5¢
PredictIt99¢
Kalshi1.02x98¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
98.4%96¢98¢2¢4¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.5%2¢5¢95¢98¢
PredictItPredictIt
50.0%1¢99¢1¢99¢
LB
Lauren Babb TomlinsonARB
49%
Kalshi15¢
Polymarket90¢
—
Kalshi6.67x15¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
9.9%10¢15¢85¢90¢
PolymarketPolymarket
89.0%79¢90¢10¢21¢
MG
Martha GuerreroARB
49%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket98¢
PredictIt98¢
Kalshi22.22x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.8%1¢5¢96¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.8%94¢98¢2¢6¢
PredictItPredictIt
50.0%5¢98¢2¢95¢
TH
Thien HoARB
45%
Kalshi26¢
Polymarket83¢
—
Kalshi3.85x26¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
20.0%19¢26¢74¢81¢
PolymarketPolymarket
69.0%61¢83¢17¢39¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictIt

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Richard Pan

Richard Pan is a former California State Senator who represented the 6th District from 2014 to 2022. He is a practicing pediatrician and professor at the University of California, Davis. Pan is recognized for his leadership in public health and education, including chairing the Assembly Committee on Health and serving as chair of the California Asian American & Pacific Islander Legislative Caucus.

About Kevin Kiley

Kevin Kiley is an Independent member of the U.S. House of Representatives for California's 3rd Congressional District. He previously served as a Republican in the California State Assembly from 2016 to 2022 and was a Deputy Attorney General in the California Department of Justice from 2015 to 2016. Kiley has a history of advocating for workers' rights and education reform, including leading efforts to overturn the Department of Labor's independent contractor ruling and chairing the Subcommittee on Early Childhood, Elementary, and Secondary Education.

About Lauren Babb Tomlinson

Lauren Babb Tomlinson is a candidate for California's 6th Congressional District in the 2026 primary election. She has over a decade of experience in social justice advocacy, including leadership roles at Planned Parenthood Mar Monte. Her extensive background in women's health and social justice positions her as a strong contender in this race.

About Martha Guerrero

Martha Guerrero is the current mayor of West Sacramento, California, serving since December 2020. She was the city's first female mayor and has focused on community engagement and urban development. Her leadership and commitment to local governance make her a significant figure in California politics.

About Thien Ho

Thien Ho is the District Attorney of Sacramento County, California, a position he has held since January 2023. Prior to this, he served as Assistant Chief Deputy District Attorney and was instrumental in prosecuting the Golden State Killer. His extensive experience in the District Attorney's office since 2004 underscores his deep commitment to public safety and justice.

About Tyler Vandenberg

Tyler Vandenberg is a Democratic candidate for California's 6th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. He served seven years in the U.S. Marine Corps, including time as a reservist, and won multiple games on 'Jeopardy!'. His campaign focuses on holding the GOP accountable, rebuilding infrastructure, and enhancing safety for immigrant, women, and LGBTQ+ communities.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread94.9%
Platforms3
Candidates7
Leader

Richard Pan

63.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-06 primary: Who will advance?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Lauren Babb Tomlinson advances in the 2026 CA-06 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the CA-06 primary?

The CA-06 primary is a key event in the electoral calendar that can determine party nominations. It influences candidate strategies and voter mobilization leading up to the general election.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment about candidates?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants, reflecting their expectations about candidates' chances. As new information emerges, such as polling data or endorsements, odds can shift significantly.

What factors can affect the odds in the CA-06 primary markets?

Factors influencing the odds include candidate fundraising, public appearances, and media coverage. Additionally, shifts in voter sentiment and demographic changes in the district can impact market predictions.

What does the CA-06 primary: Who will advance prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-06 primary: Who will advance odds?

The latest available prices are Richard Pan: 84.0¢ on Kalshi, 43.5¢ on Polymarket; Kevin Kiley: 98.4¢ on Kalshi, 3.5¢ on Polymarket, 50.0¢ on PredictIt; Lauren Babb Tomlinson: 9.9¢ on Kalshi, 89.0¢ on Polymarket; Martha Guerrero: 2.8¢ on Kalshi, 95.8¢ on Polymarket, 50.0¢ on PredictIt. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Will Kiley Advance in CA-06? Market Drops Him to 50%Kiley fell 47 points in three days with no new polling or scandal. Pan now trades at 51%, making him the market favorite.May 30, 2026