Live prediction market odds for CA-14 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Aisha Wahab was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 97%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the CA-14 primary to determine which candidates will advance. The outcome will influence the political landscape in California and could impact party dynamics leading up to the general election.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Aisha WahabWINNER | 99% | 94% | — |
Melissa Hernandez | 100% | 78% | 1% |
Matt Ortega | 0% |
The CA-14 primary is crucial as it determines which candidates will represent their parties in the general election. This can shape the overall political landscape in California.
Prediction markets aggregate bets on potential outcomes, reflecting the collective sentiment and expectations of participants. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in candidate viability as new information emerges.
Factors such as candidate fundraising, endorsements, and voter turnout will play significant roles in the primary's outcome. Additionally, local issues and national trends may also impact voter preferences.
CA-14 primary: Who will advance was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Aisha Wahab led the market at 97% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Melissa Hernandez at 59%, Matt Ortega at 18%, Matt Ortega at 18%.
Aisha Wahab held the lead at 97% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Aisha Wahab, Melissa Hernandez at 59% and Matt Ortega at 18% and Matt Ortega at 18% were the next closest contenders. The 99.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Aisha Wahab
96.7% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Suzanne Chenault advances in the 2026 CA-14 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
| 3% |
| 50% |
Matt Ortega | 0% | 3% | 50% |
Rakhi Israni Singh | 0% | 26% | — |
Wendy Huang | 1% | 3% | — |
Carin Elam | 0% | 3% | — |
Suzanne Chenault | 0% | 2% | — |
