Live prediction market odds for CA-14 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Matt Ortega was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 49%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the CA-14 primary to determine which candidates will advance.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the CA-14 primary to determine which candidates will advance. The outcome will influence the political landscape in California and could impact party dynamics leading up to the general election.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Matt OrtegaWINNER | 1% | 97% |
Aisha Wahab | 99% | 97% |
Melissa Hernandez | 69% | 69% |
Carin Elam | 3% | 99% |
Rakhi Israni Singh | 35% | 64% |
Wendy Huang | 7% | 88% |
Dena Maldonado | 5% | — |
Victor Aguilar Jr | 5% | 5% |
Suzanne Chenault | 4% | 1% |
Matt Ortega
49.1% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Victor Aguilar advances in the 2026 CA-14 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
The CA-14 primary is crucial as it determines which candidates will represent their parties in the general election. This can shape the overall political landscape in California.
Prediction markets aggregate bets on potential outcomes, reflecting the collective sentiment and expectations of participants. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in candidate viability as new information emerges.
Factors such as candidate fundraising, endorsements, and voter turnout will play significant roles in the primary's outcome. Additionally, local issues and national trends may also impact voter preferences.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Matt Ortega: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 97.3¢ on Polymarket; Aisha Wahab: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 96.8¢ on Polymarket; Melissa Hernandez: 68.5¢ on Kalshi, 68.5¢ on Polymarket; Carin Elam: 3.0¢ on Kalshi, 98.8¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
