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Live prediction market odds for CA-15 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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CA-15 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Kevin Mullin (D)95¢1.05xPolymarket USCharles Hoelter (R)3¢33.33xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Kevin Mullin (D) about a 96.2% chance. Charles Hoelter (R) follows at 2.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Traders give Kevin Mullin (D) about a 96.2% chance. Charles Hoelter (R) follows at 2.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-15 House race in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the region.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
KM
Kevin Mullin (D)
96%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket98¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
97.0%96¢98¢2¢4¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
95.0%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
96.5%95¢98¢2¢5¢
CH
Charles Hoelter (R)
2%
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket US4¢
Polymarket2¢
Kalshi30.30x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%1¢3¢97¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
3.0%3¢4¢96¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.0%1¢2¢98¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Kevin Mullin (D)

Kevin Mullin is the U.S. Representative for California's 15th congressional district, serving since January 3, 2023. Prior to this, he was the Speaker pro tempore of the California State Assembly from 2014 to 2022. His extensive legislative experience and leadership roles in California's state government underscore his qualifications for federal office.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Kevin Mullin (D)

96.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-15 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CA-15 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-15 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the CA-15 House race?

Odds are influenced by polling data, candidate profiles, and local issues that resonate with voters. Campaign funding and endorsements also play a critical role in shaping perceptions.

How does the CA-15 House race impact national politics?

The outcome could shift the balance of power in Congress, affecting legislative priorities and governance. A win for one party may signal broader trends in voter behavior across the country.

When will the CA-15 House race take place?

The election for the CA-15 House seat is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election, which includes various federal and state contests.

What does the CA-15 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-15 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Kevin Mullin (D): 97.0¢ on Kalshi, 96.5¢ on Polymarket, 95.0¢ on Polymarket US; Charles Hoelter (R): 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 2.0¢ on Polymarket, 3.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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