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Live prediction market odds for CA-16 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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CA-16 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Sam Liccardo (D)96¢1.04xPolymarket USRepublican Party3¢33.33xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Sam Liccardo (D) about a 96.8% chance. Republican Party follows at 2.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.6 percentage points.

Traders give Sam Liccardo (D) about a 96.8% chance. Republican Party follows at 2.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.6 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-16 House race. The outcome will influence the balance of power in Congress and could impact key legislative initiatives.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
SL
Sam Liccardo (D)
97%
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket US96¢
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket US1.04x96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
98.1%97¢100¢1¢3¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
95.5%95¢96¢4¢5¢
PolymarketPolymarket
96.7%96¢97¢3¢4¢
RP
Republican Party
2%
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket US3¢
Polymarket2¢
Kalshi35.71x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.5%0¢3¢97¢100¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
3.0%2¢3¢97¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.9%2¢2¢98¢98¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Sam Liccardo (D)

Sam Liccardo is the U.S. Representative for California's 16th congressional district, serving since January 3, 2025. He was the 65th Mayor of San Jose from 2015 to 2023. Liccardo has a history of leadership in local government and is currently a member of the House Committee on Financial Services.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.6%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Sam Liccardo (D)

96.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-16 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CA-16 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-16 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the CA-16 House winner?

Odds are influenced by candidate polling, fundraising efforts, and voter sentiment. Changes in local and national political climates can also affect predictions.

When is the election for the CA-16 House seat?

The election for the CA-16 House seat is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle in the United States.

Why is the CA-16 House race significant?

The CA-16 House race is significant as it could determine party control in the House of Representatives. Shifts in power can lead to changes in legislative priorities and governance.

What does the CA-16 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-16 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Sam Liccardo (D): 98.1¢ on Kalshi, 96.7¢ on Polymarket, 95.5¢ on Polymarket US; Republican Party: 1.5¢ on Kalshi, 1.9¢ on Polymarket, 3.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction Market Track Record

CA-16 primary: Who will advance?WONPre-event: 96%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

CA-16 primary: Who will advance?

Resolved

2026-06-02

WONSam Liccardo (D)
Pre-event: 96%