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Live prediction market odds for CA-20 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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CA-20 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Vince Fong (R)98¢1.02xKalshiSandra Van Scotter (D)3¢33.33xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Vince Fong (R) about a 97.2% chance. Sandra Van Scotter (D) follows at 2.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.5 percentage points.

Traders give Vince Fong (R) about a 97.2% chance. Sandra Van Scotter (D) follows at 2.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-20 House race, set for November 3, 2026. This election will be pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the state.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
VF
Vince Fong (R)
97%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US98¢
Polymarket97¢
Kalshi1.02x98¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
97.5%97¢98¢2¢4¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
97.0%97¢98¢2¢3¢
PolymarketPolymarket
97.0%97¢97¢3¢3¢
SV
Sandra Van Scotter (D)
2%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket US3¢
Polymarket3¢
Polymarket US33.33x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.2%1¢4¢97¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
2.0%2¢3¢97¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.1%1¢3¢97¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Vince Fong (R)

Vince Fong is the U.S. Representative for California's 20th congressional district. He previously served as a member of the California State Assembly from 2016 to 2024. Fong's extensive experience in state and federal politics makes him a significant figure in California's political landscape.

About Sandra Van Scotter (D)

Sandra Van Scotter is a Democratic candidate for California's 20th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House election. She has served as chairperson of the California State Council on Developmental Disabilities and as a member of the Kern Regional Center's Self-Determination Local Volunteer Advisory Committee. Her extensive experience in disability advocacy and community service positions her as a dedicated representative for the district's constituents.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Vince Fong (R)

97.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-20 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CA-20 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Republican Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-20 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the CA-20 House race?

Polling data, candidate fundraising, and voter turnout projections are key factors. Additionally, local issues and national trends can sway public opinion leading up to the election.

How do prediction markets work for elections?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom of market participants about the likelihood of various candidates winning.

Why is the CA-20 House race significant?

The CA-20 House race is significant as it may determine control of the House of Representatives. Changes in representation can impact legislative priorities and the overall political landscape.

What does the CA-20 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-20 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Vince Fong (R): 97.5¢ on Kalshi, 97.0¢ on Polymarket, 97.0¢ on Polymarket US; Sandra Van Scotter (D): 2.2¢ on Kalshi, 2.1¢ on Polymarket, 2.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Fong Hits 98% in CA-20 After $45M in Grants and Wildfire LawA 9-point surge in three days follows $45M+ in federal deliverables in a district Fong already won by 36 points in the June primary.Sep 28, 2026