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Live prediction market odds for CA-24 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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CA-24 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Salud Carbajal (D)95¢1.05xPolymarket USBob Smith (R)4¢25.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Salud Carbajal (D) about a 96.4% chance. Bob Smith (R) follows at 2.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.0 percentage points.

Traders give Salud Carbajal (D) about a 96.4% chance. Bob Smith (R) follows at 2.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-24 House race. This election is crucial as it could impact the balance of power in Congress and influence legislative priorities moving forward.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
SC
Salud Carbajal (D)
96%
Kalshi99¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket98¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
98.0%95¢99¢1¢5¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.0%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
97.2%96¢98¢2¢4¢
BS
Bob Smith (R)
3%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket US4¢
Polymarket4¢
Polymarket US25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.9%1¢5¢95¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
3.0%3¢4¢96¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.4%1¢4¢96¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Salud Carbajal (D)

Salud Carbajal is the U.S. Representative for California's 24th congressional district, serving since 2017. Before Congress, he was a Santa Barbara County Supervisor from 2005 to 2017. He has a strong track record in public service and is currently seeking re-election in 2026.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread4.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Salud Carbajal (D)

96.4% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-24 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CA-24 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Republican Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-24 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the CA-24 House race?

Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising success, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, national political climate and local issues can significantly sway public opinion.

When is the CA-24 House election scheduled?

The election for the CA-24 House seat is set for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election, where multiple federal and state offices will also be contested.

How do prediction markets work for elections?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and can change rapidly as new information becomes available.

What does the CA-24 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-24 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Salud Carbajal (D): 98.0¢ on Kalshi, 97.2¢ on Polymarket, 94.0¢ on Polymarket US; Bob Smith (R): 2.9¢ on Kalshi, 2.4¢ on Polymarket, 3.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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