Live prediction market odds for CA-26 House winner?. Compare prices across .
This event is archived while we await a venue decision. The chart below shows historical odds.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-26 House race.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-26 House race. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, depending on voter turnout and campaign dynamics leading up to November 2026.
Odds for questions with unconfirmed results.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Jacqui Irwin (D) | Yes |
Other | No result |
Sam Gallucci (R) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for CA-26 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-26 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements can also shift market perceptions.
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing places it during a midterm election cycle, which often sees varying voter turnout compared to presidential elections.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs of traders about which candidates are likely to win.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
