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Live prediction market odds for CA-30 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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CA-30 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Laura Friedman (D)98¢1.02xKalshiScott Meyers (R)3¢33.33xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Laura Friedman (D) about a 96.1% chance. Scott Meyers (R) follows at 3.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Traders give Laura Friedman (D) about a 96.1% chance. Scott Meyers (R) follows at 3.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-30 House race for the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest will be pivotal in determining party control in Congress, influencing legislative agendas and national policies.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
LF
Laura Friedman (D)
96%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US98¢
Polymarket97¢
Kalshi1.02x98¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
96.0%94¢98¢2¢6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
97.0%97¢98¢2¢3¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.3%94¢97¢4¢6¢
SM
Scott Meyers (R)
3%
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket US3¢
Polymarket5¢
Polymarket US33.33x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.9%2¢6¢94¢98¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
2.0%2¢3¢97¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.5%4¢5¢95¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Laura Friedman (D)

Laura Friedman is the current U.S. Representative for California's 30th congressional district. She previously served in the California State Assembly from 2016 to 2024 and was Mayor of Glendale from 2011 to 2012. She has a strong track record in progressive leadership and public service.

About Scott Meyers (R)

Scott Alan Meyers is a Republican candidate for California's 30th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives. He is an attorney with 37 years of civil law experience and a small business owner. Meyers' campaign focuses on border security, election integrity, reducing federal spending, and revitalizing California's film and television industry.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Laura Friedman (D)

96.1% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-30 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CA-30 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-30 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the CA-30 House race?

Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, national political climate and local issues can sway public opinion.

How do prediction markets work for elections like CA-30?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom of market participants regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning.

What is at stake in the CA-30 House election?

Winning the CA-30 House seat could impact the balance of power in Congress. This race is particularly important as it may influence future legislation and party strategies.

What does the CA-30 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-30 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Laura Friedman (D): 96.0¢ on Kalshi, 95.3¢ on Polymarket, 97.0¢ on Polymarket US; Scott Meyers (R): 3.9¢ on Kalshi, 4.5¢ on Polymarket, 2.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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