Live prediction market odds for CA-32 House winner?. Compare prices across .
This event is archived while we await a venue decision. The chart below shows historical odds.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-32 House race, set for November 3, 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-32 House race, set for November 3, 2026. This election is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in California.
Odds for questions with unconfirmed results.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Brad Sherman (D) | Yes |
Other | No result |
Larry Thompson (R) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for CA-32 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-32 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, national political climate and local issues can sway public opinion.
The outcome could affect party control in the House of Representatives, influencing legislative agendas. A shift in power may also impact future elections and party strategies.
CA-32 is often viewed as a bellwether district, reflecting broader trends in California's diverse electorate. Its results can provide insights into voter priorities and political shifts.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
