Live prediction market odds for CA-33 House winner?. Compare prices across .
This event is archived while we await a venue decision. The chart below shows historical odds.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the CA-33 House seat in the upcoming 2026 elections.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the CA-33 House seat in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, with implications for national policy and party dynamics.
Odds for questions with unconfirmed results.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Pete Aguilar (D) | Yes |
Other | No result |
Stephanie Vargas (R) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for CA-33 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Republican Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-33 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, local issues and national political climate can significantly impact the race.
Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, reflecting their expectations about the outcome. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in public opinion or new developments in the campaign.
The CA-33 seat is crucial as it may determine party control in the House of Representatives. A shift in this seat could affect legislative priorities and the ability to pass key policies.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
